Primrose Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$261,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,349 sqft · SingleFamily · 740 Days on market

↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Primrose is one of M/I Homes' newest 30' Smart Series plans, offering the flexibility you are looking for in a new home design and providing the ease of style found in our Interior and Exterior Design packages. This plan delivers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,349-1,397 square feet of living space.

Key facts

• Smart series plans
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 739 days

Tags

• SMART SERIES PLANS

🏗️ New construction. The $261,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $314,876.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $262k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-565 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 634 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 740 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,939 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 740 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,876
• List price: $261,990
• Delta: -16.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
730 Hidden Feather	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,397 (+4%)	3mo	$247,990	$178	69
701 Chipper Trl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+6%)	4mo	$278,990	$195	59
656 Chipper Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+8%)	4mo	$274,990	$190	58
635 Dove Haven Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+7%)	0mo	$295,990	$204	58
703 Walkabout Pl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+6%)	3mo	$304,490	$213	57
560 Clear Rain St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+8%)	5mo	$324,990	$224	57
769 Sunglow Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+8%)	1mo	$294,995	$203	54
753 Sunglow Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+8%)	2mo	$295,990	$204	54
587 Cherish Day Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+14%)	3mo	$283,990	$185	44
651 Walkabout Pl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+14%)	4mo	$289,990	$189	43
470 Dreamers Ln	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,525 (+13%)	2mo	$259,970	$170	42
471 Sweet Spring Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,525 (+13%)	1mo	$259,970	$170	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-86,973
• Equity at exit: $46,949

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-121,939
• Equity at exit: $27,225

Cash invested: $88,165 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,723/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,754

Max offer price $233,131

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,719
• Closing costs: $9,446
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
445 Elevon Pkwy Unit 819 Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,372	$1.14	43d	1	0.07mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,029	$1.77	3d	26	0.44mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	18d	1	0.71mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,033	$2.01	1d	80	0.76mi
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	6d	1	0.89mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,200	$1.51	12d	1	0.90mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	2d	1	0.91mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	43d	1	0.93mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	24d	1	1.11mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,345	$2.69	1d	108	1.24mi
200 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,918	$2.20	1d	5	1.27mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	3d	1	1.41mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	43d	1	1.41mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	20d	1	1.43mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $261,990 Active 740 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $261,990 Active 739 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $261,990 Active 738 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $261,990 Active 737 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $261,990 Active 735 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $261,990 Active 734 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $261,990 Active 731 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $261,990 Active 730 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $261,990 Active 729 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $261,990 Active 726 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $261,990 Active 725 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $261,990 Active 724 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $261,990 Active 723 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $261,990 Active 722 DOM
15. 2026-01-08
    price $261,990 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    The Primrose is one of M/I Homes' newest 30' Smart Series plans, offering the flexibility you are looking for in a new home design and providing the ease of style found in our Interior and Exterior Design packages. This plan delivers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,349-1,397 square feet of living space.

16. 2025-10-23
    price $260,990 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    The Primrose is one of M/I Homes' newest 30' Smart Series plans, offering the flexibility you are looking for in a new home design and providing the ease of style found in our Interior and Exterior Design packages. This plan delivers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,349-1,397 square feet of living space.

17. 2025-09-05
    price $259,990 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    The Primrose is one of M/I Homes' newest 30' Smart Series plans, offering the flexibility you are looking for in a new home design and providing the ease of style found in our Interior and Exterior Design packages. This plan delivers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,349-1,397 square feet of living space.

18. 2025-03-21
    price $274,990 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    The Primrose is one of M/I Homes' newest 30' Smart Series plans, offering the flexibility you are looking for in a new home design and providing the ease of style found in our Interior and Exterior Design packages. This plan delivers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,349-1,397 square feet of living space.

19. 2024-08-14
    price $289,990 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    The Primrose is one of M/I Homes' newest 30' Smart Series plans, offering the flexibility you are looking for in a new home design and providing the ease of style found in our Interior and Exterior Design packages. This plan delivers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,349-1,397 square feet of living space.

20. 2024-06-08
    listed $299,990 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    The Primrose is one of M/I Homes' newest 30' Smart Series plans, offering the flexibility you are looking for in a new home design and providing the ease of style found in our Interior and Exterior Design packages. This plan delivers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,349-1,397 square feet of living space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,638
• − Property taxes: −$4,723
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$9,160
• Taxable loss: −$12,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,009
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $261,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $260,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-08 Listed $299,990 Zillow