1405 S Vine St · Holden, MO 64040

$177,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Other public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1979 0.34 ac lot $170/sqft · 17% above area Est $218k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Stylish 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with updated finishes and room to grow. The fully renovated basement offers a cozy cabin-style feel and flexible space for a second living area, guest suite, or office. Fenced yard provides added privacy and space to enjoy the outdoors. Oversized 24x30 detached garage/shop offers excellent storage or workspace. Plenty of room to relax, expand, and make this property your own. * Home is occupied & Seller is offering a home warranty. *

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $177k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Holden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#167 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Holden R-III (rural): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #176 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $111,621 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,425
• List price: $177,000
• Delta: -18.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $82,484
• Equity at exit: $159,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $253,679
• Equity at exit: $343,872

Cash invested: $49,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64040

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,169/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,392

Max offer price $138,568

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-117	-5% $-167	+0% $-218	+5% $-268	+10% $-318
Rent	-10% $-306	-5% $-262	+0% $-218	+5% $-173	+10% $-129
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-173	base $-218	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,250
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $177,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $177,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $177,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $177,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $177,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    status $177,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2025-12-31
    historical
15. 2025-07-18
    price $177,000
16. 2025-07-09
    price $180,000
17. 2025-07-07
    price $182,000
18. 2025-06-29
    price $185,000
19. 2025-06-13
    listed $190,000 Active
20. 2022-01-30
    status Pending
21. 2022-01-27
    historical
22. 2021-12-21
    listed $182,000 Active
23. 2005-03-28
    soldstatus
24. 2005-03-01
    soldstatus
25. 2004-10-21
    listed $117,500
26. 2001-10-01
    soldstatus
27. 1988-05-01
    soldstatus
28. 1978-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,169 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,717 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$548/yr (+$46/mo · 46.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,169
• − Insurance: −$885
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,072
• − Management: −$1,072
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable loss: −$5,866
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,408
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holden R-III
• NCES district ID: 2914490
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,033
• Composite: 32.27/100
• National rank: #5759
• State rank: #176 of 324 in MO

Livability — Holden

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #8986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holden, MO
• City population: 5,968
• Population (ZIP): 5,968

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,794 people
• By 2030: 56,861 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 58,239 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 59,168 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 62,222 · +11.5%
• By 2100: 60,118 · +7.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.6) · D 29.5% · R 69.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.3pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -39.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.6 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.92%
• Current HPI: 342.75
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+50.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $177,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $180,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $182,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $185,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Listed $190,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-30 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-27 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-21 Listed $182,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-28 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-21 Listed $117,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1978-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,169 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.