22107 Renella Villa Dr · Hockley, TX 77447

$252,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $135/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $252,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2630 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,631 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.71%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,990
• List price: $252,990
• Delta: -15.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19619 Cinque Treasures Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (-1%)	0mo	$250,991	$146	92
22018 Matera Vista Ln	0.10mi	4/3.0	1,915 (+10%)	1mo	$284,990	$149	73
22111 Renella Villa Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,984 (+14%)	2mo	$263,990	$133	71
22048 Ponticelli Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (+14%)	1mo	$289,990	$147	70
19906 Paros Island Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+9%)	0mo	$274,900	$145	65
20739 Sunshine Meadow Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (+6%)	1mo	$245,000	$133	64
21923 Corsica View Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (-4%)	1mo	$299,990	$180	56
21739 Carballo Oak Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,594 (-8%)	1mo	$356,255	$223	48
21734 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-11%)	0mo	$269,390	$175	45
21718 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,541 (-11%)	0mo	$282,390	$183	44
21710 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-11%)	1mo	$282,390	$183	43
19615 Tiramisu Hills Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (-14%)	1mo	$269,990	$181	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-80,139
• Equity at exit: $44,431

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-127,652
• Equity at exit: $25,765

Cash invested: $83,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 287 active · 161 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $291,990 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 115 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2630
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,470/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,778

Max offer price $240,503

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-191	-5% $-294	+0% $-397	+5% $-500	+10% $-603
Rent	-10% $-577	-5% $-487	+0% $-397	+5% $-307	+10% $-218
Rate	-1.0pp $-247	-0.5pp $-321	base $-397	+0.5pp $-474	+1.0pp $-553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,498
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,300	$1.10	134d	1	0.26mi
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	1d	1	0.40mi
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	84d	1	0.40mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$2,126	$1.33	0d	7	0.43mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,766	$0.92	127d	1	0.44mi
20802 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,666	$1.06	134d	1	0.52mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	140d	1	0.63mi
22630 August Crow Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2216	$1,826	$0.82	7d	1	0.65mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	143d	1	0.73mi
22719 Tabberts Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,150	$1.14	3d	1	0.77mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,589	$1.12	130d	1	0.89mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2069	$2,672	$1.29	0d	1	0.93mi
21235 Slate Bend Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,280	$1.06	23d	1	0.98mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by RealManage Onsite ElevatedCommunity amenities: clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, picnic area, playground, park, pool, tennis courtsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 car)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot settingAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16 x 12)Bedroom on first floor (12 x 11)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen and family room combinedKitchen and dining area combinedSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $252,990 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   pricedays on market $252,990 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $242,990 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $242,990 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $242,990 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $254,990 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $254,990 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $254,990 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $254,990 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $254,990 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $254,990 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $254,990 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $254,990 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $254,990 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $254,990 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $254,990 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $254,990 Active 140 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 139 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $254,990 Active 138 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $254,990 Active 137 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 136 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $254,990 Active 135 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $254,990 Active 134 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $254,990 Active 133 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $254,990 Active 132 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 131 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $254,990 Active 130 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $254,990 Active 129 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $254,990 Active 128 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $254,990 Active 127 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $254,990 Active 126 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $254,990 Active 125 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $254,990 Active 124 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $254,990 Active 123 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 122 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    pricedays on market $254,990 Active 121 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $262,990 Active 120 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $262,990 Active 119 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $262,990 Active 118 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $262,990 Active 117 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $262,990 Active 116 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $262,990 Active 115 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $262,990 Active 114 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $262,990 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $262,990 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $262,990 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $262,990 Active 110 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $262,990 Active 109 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $262,990 Active 108 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $262,990 Active 107 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,692
• − Property taxes: −$4,470
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$10,011
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,403
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of functionality and style, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart security system — A smart security system can increase both resale and rental value by providing peace of mind and added safety features. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by RealManage Onsite ElevatedCommunity amenities: clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, picnic area, playground, park, pool, tennis courtsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 car)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot settingAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16 x 12)Bedroom on first floor (12 x 11)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen and family room combinedKitchen and dining area combinedSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-26 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-25 Price Changed $271,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $276,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-05 Listed $285,390 Zillow
• 2026-06-04 Listed $285,390 HARMLS