Sandalwood Plan · Cibolo, TX 78124

$293,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · SingleFamily · 471 Days on market

↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sandalwood floor plan in Marion, TX, is a new home design made for modern living. With an open living area, connected dining space, and a gourmet kitchen with an island and pantry, it's perfect for hosting loved ones. The upstairs game room offers a cozy spot for fun or entertaining guests. Featuring four bedrooms, this affordable home is thoughtfully designed to suit growing households.

Key facts

• Classic dining room
• Generous storage
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• CLASSIC DINING ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GENEROUS STORAGE
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• ENTERTAINING RETREAT

🏗️ New construction. The $293,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,041.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Cibolo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#261 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 471 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,711 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 471 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,041
• List price: $293,990
• Delta: -5.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
427 White Heron Way	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,079 (0%)	2mo	$324,870	$156	89
410 White Heron Way	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,079 (0%)	4mo	$296,430	$143	88
429 Raven Row	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,089 (+0%)	0mo	$299,330	$143	88
408 Raven Row	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,218 (+7%)	3mo	$309,130	$139	83
419 White Heron Way	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-2%)	6mo	$302,230	$149	83
415 White Heron Way	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,218 (+7%)	6mo	$320,030	$144	73
402 White Heron Way	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,937 (-7%)	6mo	$314,290	$162	71
2102 Monument Hl	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-3%)	1mo	$314,999	$156	69
413 Raven Row	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,837 (-12%)	3mo	$294,730	$160	66
1213 Birdsong Ave	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,837 (-12%)	6mo	$285,790	$156	66
1032 Oriole Way	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,837 (-12%)	8mo	$279,890	$152	59
418 White Heron Way	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-15%)	7mo	$289,730	$163	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-62,654
• Equity at exit: $46,228

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-70,220
• Equity at exit: $26,807

Cash invested: $86,811 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,651/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,871

Max offer price $281,572

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-90	+0% $-197	+5% $-304	+10% $-411
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-300	+0% $-197	+5% $-93	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-41	-0.5pp $-118	base $-197	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,510
• Closing costs: $9,301
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Nightingale Ave Santa Clara, TX	5.0	4.0	2832	$2,900	$1.02	44d	1	0.20mi
2207 Allison CRK Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,745	$0.94	15d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $293,990 Active 471 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $293,990 Active 470 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $293,990 Active 469 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $293,990 Active 468 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,990 Active 466 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,990 Active 465 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $293,990 Active 462 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $293,990 Active 461 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $293,990 Active 460 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $293,990 Active 457 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $293,990 Active 456 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $293,990 Active 455 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $293,990 Active 454 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $293,990 Active 453 DOM
15. 2026-03-28
    price $293,990 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    The Sandalwood floor plan in Marion, TX, is a new home design made for modern living. With an open living area, connected dining space, and a gourmet kitchen with an island and pantry, it's perfect for hosting loved ones. The upstairs game room offers a cozy spot for fun or entertaining guests. Featuring four bedrooms, this affordable home is thoughtfully designed to suit growing households.

16. 2025-10-30
    price $313,990 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    The Sandalwood floor plan in Marion, TX, is a new home design made for modern living. With an open living area, connected dining space, and a gourmet kitchen with an island and pantry, it's perfect for hosting loved ones. The upstairs game room offers a cozy spot for fun or entertaining guests. Featuring four bedrooms, this affordable home is thoughtfully designed to suit growing households.

17. 2025-07-26
    price $312,990 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    The Sandalwood floor plan in Marion, TX, is a new home design made for modern living. With an open living area, connected dining space, and a gourmet kitchen with an island and pantry, it's perfect for hosting loved ones. The upstairs game room offers a cozy spot for fun or entertaining guests. Featuring four bedrooms, this affordable home is thoughtfully designed to suit growing households.

18. 2025-07-02
    price $311,990 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    The Sandalwood floor plan in Marion, TX, is a new home design made for modern living. With an open living area, connected dining space, and a gourmet kitchen with an island and pantry, it's perfect for hosting loved ones. The upstairs game room offers a cozy spot for fun or entertaining guests. Featuring four bedrooms, this affordable home is thoughtfully designed to suit growing households.

19. 2025-03-05
    listed $310,990 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    The Sandalwood floor plan in Marion, TX, is a new home design made for modern living. With an open living area, connected dining space, and a gourmet kitchen with an island and pantry, it's perfect for hosting loved ones. The upstairs game room offers a cozy spot for fun or entertaining guests. Featuring four bedrooms, this affordable home is thoughtfully designed to suit growing households.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,367
• − Property taxes: −$4,651
• − Insurance: −$3,053
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,517
• − Management: −$2,517
• − Depreciation: −$9,019
• Taxable loss: −$7,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,839
• After-tax cash flow: $-522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cibolo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #6177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 49,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $293,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $313,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $312,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $311,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-05 Listed $310,990 Zillow