15471 Northlawn St · Detroit, MI 48238

$69,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1926 3,485 sqft lot Est $75k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,485 sq ft lot
• Built 1926
• Listed 28 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1926; Shingle siding
• Exterior features: Public water; Lot approximately 0.08 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen; Second kitchen (labeled 'Kitchen 2')
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3; Bedroom 4
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,405/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 2172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.82%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,168
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15379 Woodingham Dr	0.22mi	4/1.0	1,300 (+0%)	4mo	$7,000	$5	86
15703 Northlawn St	0.06mi	4/1.0	1,365 (+5%)	5mo	$70,000	$51	84
15767 Northlawn St	0.12mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (+10%)	3mo	$55,000	$39	67
8282 Desoto St	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,380 (+6%)	7mo	$149,000	$108	66
15771 Birwood St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,290 (-0%)	0mo	$128,995	$100	66
16171 Ilene St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,308 (+1%)	6mo	$115,000	$88	62
16659 Lilac St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (0%)	1mo	$40,000	$31	57
15374 Birwood St	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,378 (+6%)	4mo	$132,000	$96	57
7447 Ellsworth St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,160 (-10%)	5mo	$35,500	$31	52
16688 Turner St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,412 (+9%)	6mo	$50,000	$35	43
15510 Monte Vista St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (+6%)	7mo	$80,000	$58	43
16500 Griggs St	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,427 (+10%)	4mo	$130,000	$91	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $33,599
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $101,305
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48238

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $976/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15457 Cloverlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,275	$0.85	24d	1	0.07mi
16183 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1370	$1,400	$1.02	43d	1	0.44mi
7350 Globe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	0.50mi
15708 Birwood St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1255	$1,100	$0.88	4d	1	0.51mi
14656 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	17d	1	0.54mi
16546 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1577	$1,500	$0.95	43d	1	0.56mi
16255 Lilac St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,394	$1.06	17d	1	0.60mi
14550 Northlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	16d	1	0.62mi
Ohio St Unit 4 Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1400	$750	$0.54	43d	1	0.67mi
14881 Mendota St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,100	$1.07	24d	1	0.71mi
16722 Tuller St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	16d	1	0.78mi
16582 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1314	$1,399	$1.06	17d	1	0.83mi
16889 Washburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,100	$0.85	17d	1	0.84mi
14242 Ohio St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	43d	1	0.87mi
16934 Ilene St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1516	$1,400	$0.92	20d	1	0.89mi
16204 Steel St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	969	$1,150	$1.19	43d	1	1.00mi
17163 Prairie St Unit 1B Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1317	$1,350	$1.03	43d	1	1.00mi
14011 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	17d	1	1.03mi
14011 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	1d	1	1.03mi
17145 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	17d	1	1.04mi
13979 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,334	$1.03	20d	1	1.05mi
17368 Woodingham Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	43d	1	1.06mi
17530 Roselawn St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	24d	1	1.12mi
15345 Parkside St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,300	$1.13	43d	1	1.15mi
16230 Cheyenne St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1653	$1,450	$0.88	43d	1	1.16mi
13620 Kentucky St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	4d	1	1.20mi
13965 Mendota St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1222	$1,294	$1.06	17d	1	1.22mi
13620 Tuller St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1064	$1,374	$1.29	12d	1	1.23mi
15906 Alden St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	16d	1	1.24mi
17540 Pinehurst St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	43d	1	1.29mi
14891 Hartwell St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	43d	1	1.31mi
3040 Kendall St Detroit, MI	5.0	1.0	1188	$1,386	$1.17	12d	1	1.35mi
4287 W Grand St Unit 4289 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,000	$0.80	43d	1	1.39mi
15387 Lesure St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,350	$1.27	12d	1	1.41mi
14903 Tracey St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1004	$1,100	$1.10	16d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $69,900 Active
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $69,900 Active
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $976 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,026 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$50/yr (+$4/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$976
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $6,892
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,654
• After-tax cash flow: $5,945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,731
• Household income: $33,315
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2172.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% Two or more races 3% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.96%
• Current HPI: 189.6227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-21 Listed $69,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $976 · -8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.