615 N Donley Ave · Tulia, TX 79088

$49,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1960 8,712 sqft lot Est $44k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is currently rented. New roof + 2 car garage + shop in the back! This home is a smart opportunity for a first-time home buyer or real estate investor looking for value. Major updates include a new roof installed in 2023, helping reduce future repair costs and improve overall peace of mind. The home features hardwood floors, a large detached two-car garage, plus a separate storage building with alley access. Whether you're searching for a starter home, a buy-and-hold rental, or a cash-flow opportunity, this property offers flexibility, usability and long-term value. Contact your local realtor to see this home today!

Key facts

• Alley access
• Storage building
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• DETACHED GARAGE
• STORAGE BUILDING
• ALLEY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($978 rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,297 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tulia ISD (town): math 22% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #768 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $954 of equity ($339 loan paydown + $615 appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Swisher County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.87%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,740
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
320 N Briscoe Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,494 (-8%)	16mo	$39,900	$27	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $27,685
• Equity at exit: $17,384

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $67,834
• Equity at exit: $23,618

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79088

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,022/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $459

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-01-02
    listed $49,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    This home is currently rented. New roof + 2 car garage + shop in the back! This home is a smart opportunity for a first-time home buyer or real estate investor looking for value. Major updates include a new roof installed in 2023, helping reduce future repair costs and improve overall peace of mind. The home features hardwood floors, a large detached two-car garage, plus a separate storage building with alley access. Whether you're searching for a starter home, a buy-and-hold rental, or a cash-flow opportunity, this property offers flexibility, usability and long-term value. Contact your local realtor to see this home today!

17. 2026-01-02
    listed $49,000 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    This home is currently rented. New roof + 2 car garage + shop in the back! This home is a smart opportunity for a first-time home buyer or real estate investor looking for value. Major updates include a new roof installed in 2023, helping reduce future repair costs and improve overall peace of mind. The home features hardwood floors, a large detached two-car garage, plus a separate storage building with alley access. Whether you're searching for a starter home, a buy-and-hold rental, or a cash-flow opportunity, this property offers flexibility, usability and long-term value. Contact your local realtor to see this home today!

18. 2002-07-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,022 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,022 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,022
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$939
• − Management: −$939
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $4,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,061
• After-tax cash flow: $3,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tulia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843320
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,346
• Composite: 17.86/100
• National rank: #9004
• State rank: #768 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tulia

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1297
• US rank: #22536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tulia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,315

Population outlook (Swisher County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,108 people
• By 2030: 6,928 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 6,468 · -9.0%
• By 2050: 6,017 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 4,875 · -31.4%
• By 2100: 3,447 · -51.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 39% Two or more races 16% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Swisher

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 17.8% · R 81.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.26%
• Current HPI: 158.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Listed $49,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $49,000 LARMLS
• 2002-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,022 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.