1539 Paul Russell Rd #2 · Tallahassee, FL 32301

$119,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1984 871 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated 1 bedroom, 1 bath, New Roof 2024, Newer A/C, Appliances, Paint and Vinyl Plank Flooring, Convenietly Located Near Downtown, Restaurant's and​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ Shopping.

Key facts

• Newer a/c
• New roof
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEWER A/C
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Home design: Single-story
• Exterior features: Patio; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen — 9 x 9
• Bedrooms: Bedroom — 13 x 13
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Living room; Family room; Dining room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $119k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.03%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,771
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $25,506
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32301

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,310 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,331/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $993

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1453 Fisher Ln Unit 1453 Tallahassee, FL	2.0	1.0	674	$1,600	$2.37	21d	1	0.25mi
2001 Old Saint Augustine Rd Tallahassee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$947	$1.08	13d	11	0.26mi
2850 Apalachee Pkwy Tallahassee, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,395	$1.86	13d	46	0.66mi
2221 Orange Ave E Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,535	$1.52	13d	28	0.87mi
3550 Esplanade Way Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,577	$1.53	13d	27	1.24mi
410 Victory Garden Dr Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1183	$1,275	$1.08	21d	1	1.25mi
2102 E Park Ave Tallahassee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	715	$1,250	$1.75	13d	8	1.39mi
3450 S Blair Stone Rd Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,502	$1.59	13d	25	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 190-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $119,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,331
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$277
• After-tax cash flow: $2,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tallahassee, FL
• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,017
• Household income: $50,942
• Rent vs Own: 68.8% rent · 31.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2625.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.50%
• Current HPI: 231.103
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+78.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $119,000 CATRS
• 2006-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $66,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,331 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.