405 Saddle Club Way · Princeton, TX 75407

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Built 2020 6,098 sqft lot $179/sqft · 13% below area Est $315k · 13% under $53/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home, perfectly situated in Princeton, Texas—just a short drive to Allen Premium Outlets, Downtown McKinney, and the future Downtown Princeton development. This beautifully maintained single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open, welcoming layout ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. Thoughtfully enhanced beyond its builder-grade origins, the home features upgraded hardware, modern light fixtures, and stylish finishes throughout. The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a central island perfect for gathering. The private primary suite offers a beautifully maintained ensuite and dual walk-in closets. Enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with access to community pools, parks, and walking paths. Convenient highway access makes commuting easy. Meticulously cared for, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, updates, and location—ready to welcome you home.

Key facts

• Central island
• Quartz countertops
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• UPGRADED HARDWARE
• MODERN LIGHT FIXTURES
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CENTRAL ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,666 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,294
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -12.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Saddle Club Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$179	100
1004 Longhorn Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,536 (0%)	5mo	$279,999	$182	88
405 Rawhide Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+6%)	4mo	$275,000	$170	85
701 Gallop Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,536 (0%)	4mo	$275,000	$179	83
408 Rawhide Way	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+8%)	2mo	$275,000	$165	78
1002 Dry Gulch Way	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-5%)	2mo	$265,000	$182	71
702 Stampede Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,592 (+4%)	2mo	$298,900	$188	69
624 Willow View Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+7%)	1mo	$295,000	$180	68
719 Stampede Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-5%)	2mo	$295,000	$203	67
1009 Branding Iron Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,714 (+12%)	5mo	$313,000	$183	66
906 Honey Maple St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+8%)	1mo	$265,000	$160	58
1100 Western Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+6%)	4mo	$275,000	$170	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-60,535
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-89,430
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1410
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,768/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,330

Max offer price $248,077

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-75	+0% $-152	+5% $-230	+10% $-308
Rent	-10% $-321	-5% $-237	+0% $-152	+5% $-68	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-82	base $-152	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,090	$1.04	14d	1	0.13mi
412 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,000	$0.91	45d	1	0.15mi
420 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,975	$1.06	9d	1	0.17mi
604 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1592	$2,050	$1.29	45d	1	0.24mi
408 Stampede Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,925	$1.07	45d	1	0.26mi
611 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	45d	1	0.27mi
513 Spur Rdg Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	19d	1	0.29mi
603 Smokey Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,100	$1.29	20d	1	0.30mi
1501 Hidden Bluff Xing Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,200	$1.23	14d	1	0.38mi
503 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,149	$1.07	9d	1	0.39mi
717 Rawhide Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	0.41mi
627 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	45d	1	0.49mi
603 Calm Springs Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2039	$2,250	$1.10	13d	1	0.50mi
204 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1722	$1,700	$0.99	45d	1	0.52mi
203 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,575	$0.99	9d	1	0.53mi
720 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2013	$2,250	$1.12	26d	1	0.55mi
220 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1722	$1,785	$1.04	7d	1	0.56mi
229 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,650	$1.06	26d	1	0.59mi
1412 Chestnut Cove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	22d	1	0.59mi
303 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,700	$1.07	26d	1	0.61mi
303 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,700	$1.07	1d	1	0.61mi
468 Pebble Brook Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,250	$1.03	14d	1	0.61mi
1103 Wagon Wheel Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	0.61mi
1306 Colonial Bluff Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	1d	1	0.63mi
1306 Colonial Bluff Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	9d	1	0.63mi
315 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,100	$1.34	45d	1	0.64mi
1403 Forever Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2038	$2,250	$1.10	4d	1	0.70mi
1006 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1842	$1,950	$1.06	45d	1	0.71mi
1417 Forever Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1937	$2,100	$1.08	19d	1	0.71mi
1008 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,995	$1.09	26d	1	0.72mi
843 Ozark Path Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,100	$1.68	45d	1	0.76mi
445 Grenada Lake Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,050	$1.01	7d	1	0.76mi
366 Lake Erie Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$1,990	$1.09	26d	1	0.76mi
1525 Farm to Market Road 982 Princeton, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1551	$2,332	$1.50	0d	53	0.79mi
818 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,349	$1.16	3d	1	0.79mi
865 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,050	$1.31	24d	1	0.80mi
780 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,069	$1.13	45d	1	0.82mi
803 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1683	$1,850	$1.10	45d	1	0.83mi
814 Lake Fletcher Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1991	$1,994	$1.00	5d	1	0.84mi
814 Lake Fletcher Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1991	$1,994	$1.00	1d	1	0.84mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 1016-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

   Welcome to your dream home, perfectly situated in Princeton, Texas—just a short drive to Allen Premium Outlets, Downtown McKinney, and the future Downtown Princeton development. This beautifully maintained single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open, welcoming layout ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. Thoughtfully enhanced beyond its builder-grade origins, the home features upgraded hardware, modern light fixtures, and stylish finishes throughout. The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a central island perfect for gathering. The private primary suite offers a beautifully maintained ensuite and dual walk-in closets. Enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with access to community pools, parks, and walking paths. Convenient highway access makes commuting easy. Meticulously cared for, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, updates, and location—ready to welcome you home.

2. 2026-05-05
   historical Active Option Contract 1016-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

   Welcome to your dream home, perfectly situated in Princeton, Texas—just a short drive to Allen Premium Outlets, Downtown McKinney, and the future Downtown Princeton development. This beautifully maintained single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open, welcoming layout ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. Thoughtfully enhanced beyond its builder-grade origins, the home features upgraded hardware, modern light fixtures, and stylish finishes throughout. The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a central island perfect for gathering. The private primary suite offers a beautifully maintained ensuite and dual walk-in closets. Enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with access to community pools, parks, and walking paths. Convenient highway access makes commuting easy. Meticulously cared for, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, updates, and location—ready to welcome you home.

3. 2026-03-25
   listed $275,000 Active 1016-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

   Welcome to your dream home, perfectly situated in Princeton, Texas—just a short drive to Allen Premium Outlets, Downtown McKinney, and the future Downtown Princeton development. This beautifully maintained single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open, welcoming layout ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. Thoughtfully enhanced beyond its builder-grade origins, the home features upgraded hardware, modern light fixtures, and stylish finishes throughout. The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a central island perfect for gathering. The private primary suite offers a beautifully maintained ensuite and dual walk-in closets. Enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with access to community pools, parks, and walking paths. Convenient highway access makes commuting easy. Meticulously cared for, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, updates, and location—ready to welcome you home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,768 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,265/yr (+$189/mo · 81.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,768
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,595
• After-tax cash flow: $-234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $275,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+25.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,768 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.