3748 Noyack Rd · Noyack, NY 11963

$1,000,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 774 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1960 0.27 ac lot Est $1159k · 14% under ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming cottage in walking distance to Long Beach and just minutes from Sag Harbor Village. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a 0.27-acre corner lot, offering a private setting within a well-manicured yard. Whether you are enjoying the heated in-ground pool or sipping coffee on the spacious deck, you’ll be sure to relax and unwind. On the interior, you’ll find an eat-in kitchen, two bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a spacious living room with sliding doors to the deck. The property offers an attached one-car garage with a laundry area, central AC, in-ground sprinklers, and a newly constructed sidewalk that leads into town. This Sag Harbor retreat is ideally situated as a year-r

Key facts

• Central ac
• Spacious deck
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO LONG BEACH
• HEATED IN-GROUND POOL
• SPACIOUS DECK
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ATTACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• CENTRAL AC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Propane
• Home design: Single-family residence; Measured living area
• Construction: Frame construction; Crawl attic; No basement
• Exterior features: Back yard; Corner lot; Front yard; Front yard sprinklers; Private in-ground pool with electric heat

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 rooms total (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Eat-in kitchen; Recessed lighting
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($104k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.00M).
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL); Pierson Middle/High School (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #763 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 525 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $18,517/mo this rent would consume 174% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $99k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $92k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $280k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$158k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $1,000,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.24%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,158,678
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Wickatuck Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0	710 (-8%)	6mo	$1,240,000	$1,746	77
12 Butcher Ln	0.25mi	2/1.0	768 (-1%)	24mo	$1,150,000	$1,497	67
2 Chestnut St	0.66mi	2/1.0	800 (+3%)	21mo	$4,500	$6	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $1,140,453
• Equity at exit: $842,180

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 12.26×
• Total profit: $3,153,007
• Equity at exit: $1,757,154

Cash invested: $280,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,517 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,244
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,336/yr
• Insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,889
• Net cashflow: $8,690

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,517

Max offer price $1,000,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,256	-5% $8,973	+0% $8,690	+5% $8,407	+10% $8,124
Rent	-10% $7,227	-5% $7,958	+0% $8,690	+5% $9,421	+10% $10,153
Rate	-1.0pp $9,193	-0.5pp $8,944	base $8,690	+0.5pp $8,431	+1.0pp $8,167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $250,000
• Closing costs: $30,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $1,000,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-02
   price $1,100,000
6. 2025-12-09
   price $1,150,000
7. 2025-10-30
   listed $1,180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,336 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,118 · $843/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,782/yr (+$565/mo · 203.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $222,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$56,016
• − Property taxes: −$3,336
• − Insurance: −$5,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,777
• − Management: −$17,777
• − Depreciation: −$29,091
• Taxable income: $93,212
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$22,371
• After-tax cash flow: $81,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $1,150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Listed $1,180,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,336 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.