45465 25th E · Lancaster, CA 93535

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 5,466 sqft · Land public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2001

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning 2001 Mobile Home, features 3 bedrooms, two full bathrooms, 1400 sf of living area. Spacious formal living room and family room. Open kitchen with center island. Master bedroom is opposite the two bedrooms, offers dual sink, standing shower and separate jacuzzi/spa. Chain link fence for privacy. This community offers a number of amenities including swimming pool, basketball courts, gym, recreational room, RV/Boat storage, and 24-hour security, plenty of visitors parking. Feel free to Visit the park's website at https://www. lancasterestatesmhp.com Ready for immediate occupancy

Key facts

• Dual sink
• Swimming pool
• Standing shower

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• DUAL SINK
• STANDING SHOWER
• SEPARATE JACUZZI
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mobile dimensions listed (width 134, length 820); Double body type
• HOA & community: Land lease community (Lancaster Estates); Land lease approximately $820 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home remains on site; Infinity model
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Level with street; Front yard; Back yard; Curbs; Biking paths; Dog park; Street lighting; Storm drains; Sidewalks; Park

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Main-level entry
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Eastside Union Elementary (suburban): math 15% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,226 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 39 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 90% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,575
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,912
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $429	-5% $360	+0% $291	+5% $222	+10% $154
Rent	-10% $124	-5% $208	+0% $291	+5% $374	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $391	-0.5pp $342	base $291	+0.5pp $240	+1.0pp $187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2015-03-30
    historical
16. 2015-03-28
    historical
17. 2015-03-28
    historical
18. 2015-03-28
    historical
19. 2015-03-28
    historical
20. 2015-03-28
    historical
21. 2015-03-28
    historical
22. 2015-03-28
    historical
23. 2015-03-28
    historical
24. 2015-03-27
    historical
25. 2015-03-27
    historical
26. 2015-03-27
    historical
27. 2015-03-27
    historical
28. 2015-03-27
    historical
29. 2015-03-27
    historical
30. 2015-03-27
    historical
31. 2015-03-27
    historical
32. 2015-03-27
    historical
33. 2015-03-27
    historical
34. 2015-03-27
    historical
35. 2015-03-27
    historical
36. 2015-03-27
    historical
37. 2015-03-27
    historical
38. 2015-03-27
    historical
39. 2015-03-27
    historical
40. 2015-03-27
    historical
41. 2015-03-27
    historical
42. 2015-03-27
    historical
43. 2015-03-27
    historical
44. 2015-03-19
    historical
45. 2015-03-19
    historical
46. 2007-08-16
    historical
47. 2007-04-28
    listed $105,000
48. 2007-04-06
    listed $87,990
49. 2007-03-24
    listed $135,000
50. 2007-03-16
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$83
• After-tax cash flow: $3,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0611910
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,840
• Composite: 21.43/100
• National rank: #13636
• State rank: #1226 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+162.5% since first listed

79 events — show timeline

• 2015-03-30 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-19 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-19 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2007-08-16 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2007-04-28 Listed $105,000 AVMLS
• 2007-04-06 Listed $87,990 AVMLS
• 2007-03-24 Listed $135,000 AVMLS
• 2007-03-16 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2007-03-12 Listed $115,000 AVMLS
• 2007-02-02 Listed $95,000 AVMLS
• 2007-01-11 Listed $105,000 AVMLS
• 2006-12-11 Listed $115,000 AVMLS
• 2006-12-10 Listed $115,000 AVMLS
• 2006-12-10 Listed $115,000 AVMLS
• 2006-11-02 Listed $129,900 AVMLS
• 2006-10-31 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2006-10-10 Listed $138,500 AVMLS
• 2006-10-08 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2006-10-06 Listed $105,000 AVMLS
• 2006-09-19 Listed $139,900 AVMLS
• 2006-09-14 Listed $115,000 AVMLS
• 2006-09-12 Listed $130,000 AVMLS
• 2006-08-30 Listed $104,000 AVMLS
• 2006-08-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-08-07 Listed $100,000 AVMLS
• 2006-07-06 Listed $123,000 AVMLS
• 2006-06-09 Listed $130,000 AVMLS
• 2006-05-20 Listed $87,500 AVMLS
• 2006-05-18 Listed $36,900 AVMLS
• 2006-04-24 Listed $129,500 AVMLS
• 2006-03-28 Listed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2006-03-16 Listed $89,900 AVMLS
• 2006-02-24 Listed $104,000 AVMLS
• 2006-01-26 Listed $140,000 AVMLS
• 2005-10-12 Listed $105,000 AVMLS
• 2005-10-11 Listed $115,000 AVMLS
• 2005-08-23 Listed $146,000 AVMLS
• 2005-07-06 Listed $76,990 AVMLS
• 2004-12-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2004-10-18 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2004-10-18 Listed $68,750 AVMLS
• 2004-10-03 Listed $99,000 AVMLS
• 2004-09-23 Listed $75,000 AVMLS
• 2004-09-11 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2004-09-04 Listed $110,000 AVMLS
• 2004-07-14 Listed $68,750 AVMLS
• 2004-01-29 Listed $70,000 AVMLS
• 2004-01-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2003-10-03 Listed $32,000 AVMLS
• 2003-05-22 Listed $59,900 AVMLS
• 2002-11-07 Listed $40,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $162,408 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.