3121 Middletown Rd Unit 1G · New York, NY 10461

$169,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Condo · 62 Days on market

Built 1963 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One-Bedroom Co-op for Sale in Pelham Bay Welcome to your next home in the heart of the desirable Pelham Bay neighborhood! This charming one-bedroom co-op offers comfort, convenience, and a prime location just moments from Pelham Bay Park. Spacious one-bedroom layout, Well-maintained On-site laundry for added convenience, live-in superintendent. Location: Perfectly situated near major highways, making commuting simple and efficient. Enjoy easy access to public transportation, shopping centers, restaurants, and all the local amenities you need for everyday living. Don’t miss this opportunity to own in one of the Bronx’s most sought-after neighborhoods!

Key facts

• Shopping centers
• Local amenities
• Restaurants

Tags

• ON-SITE LAUNDRY
• SHOPPING CENTERS
• RESTAURANTS
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (waitlist)
• Utilities: Electric service by Con-Edison; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Stock cooperative; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Walk-in closet(s); Basement (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $169k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.13%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-24,449
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $25,642
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10461

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$901
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,619

Max offer price $145,423

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-105	+0% $-163	+5% $-221	+10% $-280
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-258	+0% $-163	+5% $-68	+10% $28
Rate	-1.0pp $-78	-0.5pp $-120	base $-163	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1250 Pelham Pkwy S Unit B Bronx, NY	1.0	1.0	725	$2,850	$3.93	25d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-04-20
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,316
• − Management: −$2,316
• − HOA: −$10,812
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$4,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,021
• After-tax cash flow: $-934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This one-bedroom co-op in Pelham Bay is in fair condition with cosmetic repairs needed. Painting and flooring updates would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior paint — Some discoloration
• Minor interior paint — Some scuff marks
• Minor flooring — Some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both flooring — Improves living space and adds value
• Both bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior paint · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · Some scuff marks	Minor	$500–3,000
flooring · Some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both flooring — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Both bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 52,012
• Household income: $67,028
• Rent vs Own: 70.3% rent · 29.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4430.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 30% Asian 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 1% Dominican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 13% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.06%
• Current HPI: 266.5457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.99%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $169,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid