The Oriole II Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$277,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,061 sqft · SingleFamily · 380 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the best of two-story living with the Oriole II. The first floor features a spacious, open-concept design that connects the family room, kitchen, and dining area seamlessly. A conveniently located half bath is situated across from the staircase. Upstairs, youll find three bedrooms, two full baths, and a loft space. The primary bedroom and bathroom are thoughtfully placed on the opposite side of the loft, offering privacy and direct access to the laundry room. You can replace the loft with a fourth bedroom if you need additional sleeping space.

Key facts

• Open concept design
• Loft space
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED HALF BATH
• LOFT SPACE
• PRIMARY BEDROOM PRIVACY
• DIRECT ACCESS TO LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $277,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $316,624.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.6% in Magnolia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2366 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 90d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,538 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.57%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,624
• List price: $277,990
• Delta: -12.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40506 Tyto Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,064 (+0%)	1mo	$284,900	$138	82
15404 Bicknells Thrush Ct	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,950 (-5%)	4mo	$340,000	$174	72
40702 Barley Straw	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,909 (-7%)	4mo	$311,490	$163	61
15218 Black Scoter Ct	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,064 (+0%)	2mo	$274,900	$133	61
15034 Baikal Teal Ter	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,992 (-3%)	0mo	$310,000	$156	60
15119 Bank Swallow Pl	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,070 (+0%)	2mo	$329,900	$159	58
40759 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (-13%)	4mo	$293,490	$163	53
40718 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (-13%)	4mo	$294,890	$164	53
40735 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (-13%)	4mo	$279,990	$156	53
15019 Baikal Teal Ter	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,931 (-6%)	5mo	$317,900	$165	53
15103 Bank Swallow Pl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,826 (-11%)	3mo	$299,990	$164	46
15127 Bank Swallow Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,848 (-10%)	2mo	$319,900	$173	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $135,900
• Equity at exit: $285,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $414,305
• Equity at exit: $615,131

Cash invested: $88,655 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 65 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.5 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $298,000 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 2366
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,155 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,660
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$396 /mo · $4,749/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,770

Max offer price $246,391

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-267	-5% $-376	+0% $-485	+5% $-595	+10% $-704
Rent	-10% $-656	-5% $-571	+0% $-485	+5% $-400	+10% $-315
Rate	-1.0pp $-326	-0.5pp $-405	base $-485	+0.5pp $-567	+1.0pp $-651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,156
• Closing costs: $9,499
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,891	$2.62	0d	40	0.05mi
40322 Bay Warbler Way Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,000	$1.25	89d	1	0.11mi
40322 Bay Warbler Way Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,000	$1.25	0d	1	0.11mi
40322 Bay Warbler Way Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,000	$1.25	82d	1	0.11mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	184d	1	0.16mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	165d	1	0.18mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	10d	1	0.32mi
40402 Red Poppy Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,295	$1.21	55d	1	0.44mi
14703 Night Violet Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1748	$1,951	$1.12	56d	1	0.49mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	139d	1	0.66mi
40553 Winter Grass Bnd Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,800	$1.09	27d	1	0.66mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	184d	1	0.83mi
40427 Basalt Elm Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,975	$1.25	112d	1	0.89mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	160d	1	1.02mi
40618 Balsam Run Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,300	$1.46	64d	1	1.06mi
40718 Barley Straw Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	95d	1	1.06mi
40650 Balsam Run Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	65d	1	1.13mi
475 Audubons Shearwater Way Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,700	$1.32	104d	1	1.32mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	165d	1	1.45mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $277,990 Active 380 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $277,990 Active 379 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $277,990 Active 378 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $277,990 Active 377 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $277,990 Active 376 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $277,990 Active 374 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $277,990 Active 373 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $277,990 Active 372 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $277,990 Active 371 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $277,990 Active 370 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $277,990 Active 369 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $277,990 Active 368 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $277,990 Active 367 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $277,990 Active 366 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $277,990 Active 365 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $277,990 Active 364 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $277,990 Active 363 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $277,990 Active 362 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $277,990 Active 361 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $277,990 Active 360 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $277,990 Active 359 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $277,990 Active 358 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $277,990 Active 357 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $277,990 Active 356 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $277,990 Active 355 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $277,990 Active 354 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $277,990 Active 353 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $277,990 Active 352 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $277,990 Active 351 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $277,990 Active 350 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $277,990 Active 349 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $277,990 Active 348 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $277,990 Active 347 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $277,990 Active 346 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 345 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $277,990 Active 344 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 343 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $277,990 Active 342 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $277,990 Active 341 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $277,990 Active 340 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $277,990 Active 339 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $277,990 Active 338 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $277,990 Active 337 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $277,990 Active 336 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $277,990 Active 335 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $277,990 Active 334 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $277,990 Active 333 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $277,990 Active 332 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $277,990 Active 331 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $277,990 Active 330 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,736
• − Property taxes: −$4,749
• − Insurance: −$1,583
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,069
• − Management: −$2,069
• − Depreciation: −$9,211
• Taxable loss: −$11,553
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,773
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a spacious, open-concept design and modern features. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $273,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $268,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-25 Listed $266,990 Zillow