2234 Kershaw Rd · The Villages, FL 32162

$475,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2006 0.28 ac lot Est $478k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Discover the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and potential with this Lantana model, nestled in the highly sought-after Village of Liberty Park. Ideally located just a short drive from Lake Sumter Landing, you’ll enjoy easy access to vibrant live entertainment, boutique shopping, and a variety of dining options. Situated at the end of a peaceful cul-de-sac, this home offers privacy and charm on a beautifully landscaped lot with room to dream—maybe even space for a pool! While this property boasts a spacious, open floor plan with vaulted ceilings and abundant natural light, it also presents an exciting opportunity for updates. The roo

Key facts

• Lake sumter landing
• Golf cart garage
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• VILLAGE OF LIBERTY PARK
• LAKE SUMTER LANDING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED AND SCREENED LANAI
• GOLF CART GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No home warranty; Lease restrictions not indicated
• Financial info: Total annual fees reported: $2,448 (if applicable); Total monthly fees reported: $204 (if applicable)
• HOA & community: Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage; 2-car garage; Garage door opener; Golf cart garage/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces northwest; Residential zoning
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder model: Lantana; Built as one-level home
• Exterior features: Covered, screened rear porch; Patio; Rain gutters; Irrigation equipment; Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Stone counters; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $439k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $388k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $388k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,881/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $355k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $388,109 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $478,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2391 ST George Ave	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,957 (-2%)	4mo	$810,000	$414	77
2416 Boiling Springs Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,927 (-4%)	4mo	$719,000	$373	70
2449 Heath Springs Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,965 (-2%)	3mo	$535,000	$272	66
1040 Dentsville Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,006 (+0%)	0mo	$370,000	$184	64
1656 Hollow Branch Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,927 (-4%)	1mo	$435,000	$226	62
1159 Isle OF Palms Path	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,887 (-6%)	2mo	$400,000	$212	61
1147 Isle OF Palms Path	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,927 (-4%)	6mo	$455,000	$236	61
1486 Golden Ridge Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,881 (-6%)	2mo	$450,000	$239	60
973 Isle OF Palms Path	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,927 (-4%)	4mo	$402,000	$209	59
2505 Heath Springs Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,887 (-6%)	2mo	$483,000	$256	58
1675 Abernethy Pl	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,122 (+6%)	5mo	$462,500	$218	56
1780 Reedy Creek Pl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,743 (-13%)	3mo	$420,000	$241	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-86,444
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-76,839
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,881 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$380 /mo · $4,556/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$815
• Net cashflow: $-206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,142

Max offer price $438,522

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $-72	+0% $-206	+5% $-341	+10% $-475
Rent	-10% $-513	-5% $-360	+0% $-206	+5% $-53	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $-86	base $-206	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1623 Abernethy Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,800	$3.07	22d	1	0.55mi
1109 Alcove Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1970	$3,000	$1.52	22d	1	0.88mi
731 Baisley Trl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1512	$4,500	$2.98	22d	1	0.97mi
2192 Quinn Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$5,600	$3.48	22d	1	1.41mi
2111 Jem Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,800	$2.90	22d	1	1.44mi
2875 Rain Lily Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1965	$4,490	$2.28	22d	1	1.46mi
2272 Vassar Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	22d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $475,000
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $489,000 Active
3. 2014-07-22
   soldstatus $354,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,556 · $380/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,556 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$4,556
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,726
• − Management: −$3,726
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$10,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,564
• After-tax cash flow: $86/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+33.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $475,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Listed $489,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $354,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,556 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.