829 Fair St · Houston, TX 77088

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2016 5,601 sqft lot $160/sqft · 14% below area Est $198k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Small and cozy 3/2 Stucco house near I 45 build in 2016. Lot of new houses and town homes on the this and near by street. Easy access to highways and DT. Come and see this house today!

Key facts

• 5,601 sq ft lot
• Built 2016
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2016
• Construction: Cement siding; Stucco exterior; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (12 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 12); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each 12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Kitchen on the first floor (12 x 10); Living room on the first floor (16 x 12)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Williams Middle (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 411 students, 98% FRL); Washington B T H S (math 27% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 878 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.23%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,807
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -14.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 Fortune St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,023 (-4%)	9mo	$120,150	$117	82
955 Lucky St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,064 (0%)	1mo	$110,000	$103	79
894 N Victory Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,130 (+6%)	5mo	$165,000	$146	70
8602 De Priest St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	6mo	$115,000	$106	69
958 Conklin St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-4%)	3mo	$215,000	$211	64
754 Prosper St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+14%)	8mo	$99,900	$82	56
8914 De Priest St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-4%)	8mo	$150,000	$147	54
770 Boeneman Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5	940 (-12%)	13mo	$170,000	$181	50
1028 N Victory Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	960 (-10%)	12mo	$200,000	$208	46
8319 Ponnel Ln	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,025 (-4%)	20mo	$165,000	$161	42
6828 Knox St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,177 (+11%)	8mo	$240,000	$204	42
1042 Saint Clair St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-14%)	13mo	$128,000	$140	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-22,247
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-26,418
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77088

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,250/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,666

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
783 Fortune St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1328	$1,795	$1.35	17d	1	0.18mi
8108 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.27mi
8110 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.27mi
8112 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.27mi
8118 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.31mi
8120 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	44d	1	0.31mi
8120 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.31mi
8122 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.31mi
8306 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	21d	1	0.33mi
8310 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	21d	1	0.34mi
8312 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	21d	1	0.35mi
8312 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	21d	1	0.35mi
929 Marjorie St Unit 1060806P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$3,091	$2.87	8d	1	0.36mi
1010 Junell St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	24d	1	0.40mi
7486 N Shepherd Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,290	$1.10	44d	1	0.44mi
301 W Little York Rd Unit 1722 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,230	$0.93	21d	1	0.95mi
1464 Ferguson Way Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	44d	1	1.06mi
1450 Dewalt St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1371	$2,500	$1.82	44d	1	1.22mi
1438 Peach Spring Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.5	1288	$1,599	$1.24	2d	1	1.25mi
1825 W Little York Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	787	$880	$1.12	44d	1	1.36mi
312 W Sunnyside St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	894	$1,001	$1.12	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-17
    price $170,000 187-char remark
13. 2026-05-11
    listed $190,000 Active 187-char remark
14. 2026-01-09
    historical
15. 2025-10-30
    listed $225,000 Active
16. 2025-05-06
    historical $1,499
17. 2024-11-09
    price $1,499
18. 2024-10-14
    listed $1,500
19. 1988-07-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,250 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,250 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$4,250
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$151
• After-tax cash flow: $2,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,047
• Household income: $54,411
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2294.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Black 37% Two or more races 18% White 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.37%
• Current HPI: 325.0499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11233.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Rental Removed $1,499 HARMLS
• 2024-11-09 Price Changed $1,499 HARMLS
• 2024-10-14 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 1988-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,250 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.