1 Willow Ct · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$233,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 244 Days on market

Built 1987 10,454 sqft lot $192/sqft · at area comps Est $240k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming residence located on a serene cul-de-sac in Ocala. This home features a new roof, new windows, French doors, cable ready, crown molding through the entire house, both bathrms new, house completely tiled, garage has ac duct, can convert to a bedrm, a very large enclosed screen room, with fans, completely fenced in property, big shed, water sprinklers, all heads have been replaced, new valves, separated drain for washing machine gutters all around the house, water softener unit, brick patio, new electronics for well pump. , and many other upgrades, septic tank cleaned out, has a brand new storage container, 20ft, can use for living, or storage, a great deal for the price

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Nearby amenities
• Cozy backyard

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• MODERN KITCHEN
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• COZY BACKYARD
• NEARBY AMENITIES
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Legacy Elementary School (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 716 students, 72% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $233k implies a 412% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,184 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.96%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,501
• List price: $233,000
• Delta: -2.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 Pine Radl	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+2%)	4mo	$165,000	$133	77
35 Pine Radl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,091 (-10%)	2mo	$237,000	$217	73
4 Bahia Court Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,337 (+10%)	2mo	$252,000	$188	69
15 Pine Run Ter	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+5%)	16mo	$241,000	$189	67
33 Pine Crse	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	22mo	$234,000	$190	67
171 Willow Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,381 (+14%)	23mo	$250,000	$181	54
9637 Bahia Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+14%)	5mo	$248,000	$180	54
20 Water Trak	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-14%)	8mo	$190,000	$183	45
5 Water Pass	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+11%)	10mo	$239,900	$178	40
9 Pine Circle Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-8%)	18mo	$180,000	$161	38
88 Cedar Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-7%)	23mo	$199,000	$176	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $47,916
• Equity at exit: $145,481

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $143,392
• Equity at exit: $262,971

Cash invested: $65,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,702 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,888/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,974

Max offer price $194,986

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-149	+0% $-215	+5% $-281	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-350	-5% $-282	+0% $-215	+5% $-148	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-98	-0.5pp $-156	base $-215	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,250
• Closing costs: $6,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9649 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,595	$1.24	23d	1	0.31mi
7 Pine Run Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,500	$1.05	15d	1	0.34mi
13 Pine Radial Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,795	$1.24	23d	1	0.35mi
43 Water Track Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,799	$1.40	15d	1	0.35mi
5 Cedar Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,750	$1.64	23d	1	0.36mi
139 Pine Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,645	$1.18	15d	1	0.84mi
446 Water Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,425	$1.14	23d	1	0.88mi
455 Water Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,450	$1.14	15d	1	0.94mi
57 Pine Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,897	$1.49	15d	1	0.95mi
7455 Midway Ter Unit K Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,249	$1.38	23d	1	0.99mi
9 Pine Course Radl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,725	$1.19	15d	1	0.99mi
478 Water Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,650	$1.34	23d	1	1.07mi
9337 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,765	$1.26	15d	1	1.10mi
6 Cedar Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,675	$1.13	23d	1	1.11mi
162 Bahia Terrace Dr Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,375	$1.40	23d	1	1.12mi
60 Bahia Court Trak Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,695	$1.20	23d	1	1.16mi
7215 Midway Ter Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,175	$1.21	23d	1	1.21mi
43 Bahia Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,475	$1.24	23d	1	1.22mi
7184 Hemlock Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,675	$1.20	23d	1	1.26mi
544 Silver Crse Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,395	$1.54	15d	1	1.30mi
12 Spring Loop Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	15d	1	1.33mi
54 Pine Trak Unit 104F Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,300	$1.56	23d	1	1.40mi
708 Bahia Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,500	$1.11	23d	1	1.43mi
58 Pine Trak Unit 104D Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,050	$1.26	23d	1	1.44mi
62 Pine Trak Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,250	$1.50	23d	1	1.47mi
28 Poplar Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,650	$1.12	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $233,000 Active 244 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,000 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $233,000 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $233,000 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,000 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $233,000 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,000 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $233,000 Active 233 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $233,000 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $233,000 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $233,000 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $233,000 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,000 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,000 Active 223 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $233,000 Active 222 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $238,000 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Welcome to this charming residence located on a serene cul-de-sac in Ocala. This home features a new roof,new windows,French doors,cable ready,crown molding through the entire house, both bathrms new,house completely tiled, garage has ac duct, can convert to a bedrm,a very large enclosed screen room, with fans, completely fenced in property, big shed,water sprinklers, all heads have been replaced,new valves, separated drain for washing machine gutters all around the house, water softener unit, brick patio,new electronics for well pump., and many other upgrades, septic tank cleaned out,has a brand new storage container, 20ft, can use for living,or storage,a great deal for the price

17. 2026-04-23
    price $238,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Welcome to this charming residence located on a serene cul-de-sac in Ocala. This home features a new roof,new windows,French doors,cable ready,crown molding through the entire house, both bathrms new,house completely tiled, garage has ac duct, can convert to a bedrm,a very large enclosed screen room, with fans, completely fenced in property, big shed,water sprinklers, all heads have been replaced,new valves, separated drain for washing machine gutters all around the house, water softener unit, brick patio,new electronics for well pump., and many other upgrades, septic tank cleaned out,has a brand new storage container, 20ft, can use for living,or storage,a great deal for the price

18. 2026-03-01
    price $245,000 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Welcome to this charming residence located on a serene cul-de-sac in Ocala. This home features a new roof,new windows,French doors,cable ready,crown molding through the entire house, both bathrms new,house completely tiled, garage has ac duct, can convert to a bedrm,a very large enclosed screen room, with fans, completely fenced in property, big shed,water sprinklers, all heads have been replaced,new valves, separated drain for washing machine gutters all around the house, water softener unit, brick patio,new electronics for well pump., and many other upgrades, septic tank cleaned out,has a brand new storage container, 20ft, can use for living,or storage,a great deal for the price

19. 2026-03-01
    price $245,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Welcome to this charming residence located on a serene cul-de-sac in Ocala. This home features a new roof,new windows,French doors,cable ready,crown molding through the entire house, both bathrms new,house completely tiled, garage has ac duct, can convert to a bedrm,a very large enclosed screen room, with fans, completely fenced in property, big shed,water sprinklers, all heads have been replaced,new valves, separated drain for washing machine gutters all around the house, water softener unit, brick patio,new electronics for well pump., and many other upgrades, septic tank cleaned out,has a brand new storage container, 20ft, can use for living,or storage,a great deal for the price

20. 2025-10-21
    listed $255,000 Active 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Welcome to this charming residence located on a serene cul-de-sac in Ocala. This home features a new roof,new windows,French doors,cable ready,crown molding through the entire house, both bathrms new,house completely tiled, garage has ac duct, can convert to a bedrm,a very large enclosed screen room, with fans, completely fenced in property, big shed,water sprinklers, all heads have been replaced,new valves, separated drain for washing machine gutters all around the house, water softener unit, brick patio,new electronics for well pump., and many other upgrades, septic tank cleaned out,has a brand new storage container, 20ft, can use for living,or storage,a great deal for the price

21. 2025-10-20
    listed $255,000 Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Welcome to this charming residence located on a serene cul-de-sac in Ocala. This home features a new roof, new windows, French doors, cable ready, crown molding through the entire house, both bathrms new, house completely tiled, garage has ac duct, can convert to a bedrm, a very large enclosed screen room, with fans, completely fenced in property, big shed, water sprinklers, all heads have been replaced, new valves, separated drain for washing machine gutters all around the house, water softener unit, brick patio, new electronics for well pump. , and many other upgrades, septic tank cleaned out, has a brand new storage container, 20ft, can use for living, or storage, a great deal for the price

22. 2025-10-16
    historical
23. 2025-08-09
    price $253,000
24. 2024-11-05
    price $265,000
25. 2024-11-04
    listed $305,900 Active
26. 2012-06-20
    soldstatus $45,500
27. 2001-06-18
    soldstatus $57,900
28. 1999-11-23
    soldstatus $56,000
29. 1999-11-23
    soldstatus $56,000
30. 1996-06-20
    soldstatus $50,000
31. 1995-06-05
    soldstatus $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,052
• − Property taxes: −$2,888
• − Insurance: −$1,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,634
• − Management: −$1,634
• − Depreciation: −$6,778
• Taxable loss: −$6,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,615
• After-tax cash flow: $-967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+380.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $238,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $238,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $245,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $255,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $253,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-04 Listed $305,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records
• 2001-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records
• 1999-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1996-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,888 · +264.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.