Willow Plan · Bryan, TX 77802

$1

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,215 sqft · SingleFamily · 423 Days on market

Good condition $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The stunning Willow plan is spacious, functional, and designed with comfortable living in mind. Walking into the home you have a private bedroom and bathroom, a wonderful set-up for short-term guests or family members. Continuing on you will get into the kitchen which is completely open to the dining and living area. The Willow kitchen has everything you can think of including but not limited to stainless steel appliances, custom vent hood and cabinetry, large island with trash can drawer, client selected backsplash, and so much more! Adjacent to the kitchen is a pantry with upper and lower cabinetry, countertop space for your coffee pots and other small kitchen appliances! The living area has abundant natural light with all of the large windows and great views into the backyard. Off the main area is a roomy laundry room with a custom-built drop zone. Bedrooms 3 and 4 share a spacious bathroom with linen storage, double vanities and extra drawer banks, and a beautiful tub/shower combination with tile surround. In the primary bathroom you will have a deep freestanding tub, walk-in shower with tile surround and flooring, double vanity and entrance into the oversized his and hers walk-in closet! This plan is so functional and is great to have additional rooms without going too high in square footage.

Key facts

• Custom vent hood
• Large island
• Open kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE BEDROOM AND BATHROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM VENT HOOD
• LARGE ISLAND
• PANTRY WITH CABINETRY

🏗️ New construction. The $1 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $445,752.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-609 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $1).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities C-.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,192/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 423 days — a 12% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 668628.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 423 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.86%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $445,752
• List price: $1
• Delta: -100.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5022 Toscana Loop	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,290 (+3%)	3mo	$499,900	$218	80
4250 Appalachian Trl	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,236 (+1%)	5mo	$498,500	$223	80
4111 Corvallis Ct	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,143 (-3%)	7mo	$412,000	$192	74
4261 Harding Way	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,024 (-9%)	2mo	$398,500	$197	74
4103 Hennepin Ct	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,212 (-0%)	9mo	$475,000	$215	70
4302 Appalachian Trl	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-8%)	1mo	$405,000	$199	67
5403 Bloomsbury	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,032 (-8%)	3mo	$450,000	$221	62
5020 Toscana Loop	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,943 (-12%)	3mo	$439,900	$226	61
4209 Harding Ct	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,522 (+14%)	10mo	$494,500	$196	60
6201 Cromwell Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,106 (-5%)	4mo	$398,000	$189	56
4724 Hunington Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,124 (-4%)	12mo	$389,999	$184	54
5305 Winchester Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,976 (-11%)	2mo	$385,000	$195	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-114,693
• Equity at exit: $66,463

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-164,515
• Equity at exit: $38,540

Cash invested: $124,811 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77802

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 278

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,192 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,338
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$557 /mo · $6,686/yr
• Insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,963

Max offer price $357,611

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-301	-5% $-455	+0% $-609	+5% $-763	+10% $-917
Rent	-10% $-861	-5% $-735	+0% $-609	+5% $-483	+10% $-357
Rate	-1.0pp $-385	-0.5pp $-496	base $-609	+0.5pp $-725	+1.0pp $-842

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,438
• Closing costs: $13,373
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5040 Mooney Falls Dr Unit 1328058P Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$5,551	$3.02	14d	1	0.48mi
5041 Mooney Falls Dr Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	45d	1	0.50mi
4150 Pendleton Dr Bryan, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1061	$1,955	$1.84	14d	28	0.59mi
1762 Dakota Ln Unit 1328094P College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1506	$2,852	$1.89	22d	1	0.91mi
1761 Dakota Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.5	1598	$2,250	$1.41	22d	1	0.93mi
2126 Crescent Pointe Pkwy College Station, TX	4.0	4.5	1864	$650	$0.35	45d	1	1.21mi
1416 Crescent Ridge Dr Unit 1328076P College Station, TX	4.0	3.0	1980	$7,187	$3.63	22d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1 Active 423 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 420 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 419 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 418 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 417 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1 Active 415 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 414 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1 Active 412 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1 Active 411 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1 Active 410 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1 Active 409 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1 Active 405 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1 Active 404 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 403 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 402 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1 Active 401 DOM
17. 2025-04-24
    listed $1 Active 1318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1318 chars)

    The stunning Willow plan is spacious, functional, and designed with comfortable living in mind. Walking into the home you have a private bedroom and bathroom, a wonderful set-up for short-term guests or family members. Continuing on you will get into the kitchen which is completely open to the dining and living area. The Willow kitchen has everything you can think of including but not limited to stainless steel appliances, custom vent hood and cabinetry, large island with trash can drawer, client selected backsplash, and so much more! Adjacent to the kitchen is a pantry with upper and lower cabinetry, countertop space for your coffee pots and other small kitchen appliances! The living area has abundant natural light with all of the large windows and great views into the backyard. Off the main area is a roomy laundry room with a custom-built drop zone. Bedrooms 3 and 4 share a spacious bathroom with linen storage, double vanities and extra drawer banks, and a beautiful tub/shower combination with tile surround. In the primary bathroom you will have a deep freestanding tub, walk-in shower with tile surround and flooring, double vanity and entrance into the oversized his and hers walk-in closet! This plan is so functional and is great to have additional rooms without going too high in square footage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,969
• − Property taxes: −$6,686
• − Insurance: −$2,229
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,064
• − Management: −$3,064
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$12,967
• Taxable loss: −$15,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,667
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Bryan, TX, is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for minor cosmetic improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,895
• Composite: 26.26/100
• National rank: #7253
• State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bryan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3341

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bryan, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 101,772
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,762
• Household income: $70,666
• Rent vs Own: 49.1% rent · 50.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.67%
• Current HPI: 202.0858
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.82%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B