2015 Mojave Scenic · Wrightwood, CA 92397

$449,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1987 3,273 sqft lot $274/sqft · 8% below area Est $489k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming tri-level mountain retreat nestled among mature pines with dual driveways and a 2-car garage—offering rare parking flexibility in a mountain setting. Built in 1987, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home features approximately 1,640 sq ft of living space. The main level welcomes you with a spacious living room showcasing a cozy stone fireplace, wood-beamed ceilings, and abundant natural light. The adjacent kitchen offers ample cabinetry, updated countertops, and a functional layout that flows into a dedicated dining area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Step outside to an elevated deck surrounded by trees, creating a peaceful outdoor setting, plus a lower patio area with custom stonework that adds to the property’s charm and usability. The tri-level layout provides separation of space, with a bedroom on the entry level (garage level) and additional bedrooms on the upper floor. Interior features include wood-style flooring, ceiling fans, and a mix of updated and original character throughout. Additional highlights include a 10x12 storage shed (included), and two separate driveways—one approximately 27’ deep x 13’ wide and a second approximately 46’ deep x 18’ wide—ideal for multiple vehicles, guests, or recreational storage. A great opportunity for a full-time residence, second home, or investment in a desirable mountain setting.

Key facts

• 10x12 storage shed
• Elevated deck
• Custom stonework

Tags

• TRI-LEVEL MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• DUAL DRIVEWAYS
• ELEVATED DECK
• LOWER PATIO AREA
• CUSTOM STONEWORK
• 10X12 STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $420k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $420k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.1% in Wrightwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,155 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $449k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $420,000 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.81%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $489,106
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -8.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5435 Heath Creek Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,583 (-4%)	6mo	$455,000	$287	68
2323 E Canyon Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,588 (-3%)	10mo	$440,000	$277	64
5217 Desert View Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-8%)	14mo	$349,000	$231	61
5440 Lone Pine Canyon Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-9%)	8mo	$440,000	$294	59
5342 Lone Pine Canyon Rd	0.37mi	3/3.0	1,500 (-8%)	11mo	$410,000	$273	56
5321 E Canyon Ct	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+10%)	14mo	$605,000	$336	51
1876 Sparrow Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+8%)	7mo	$497,000	$281	49
5323 Chaumont Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,398 (-15%)	8mo	$460,000	$329	49
5617 Dogwood Rd	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,793 (+9%)	10mo	$470,000	$262	45
5471 Zurich Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+15%)	2mo	$494,000	$262	45
5517 Easter Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-14%)	13mo	$408,000	$290	41
5747 Lodgepole	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,864 (+14%)	2mo	$432,400	$232	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-44,249
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-2,046
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92397

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,263/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$882
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,632

Max offer price $449,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1668 Highway 2 Wrightwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1629	$4,200	$2.58	1d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $449,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $459,000 1416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

    Charming tri-level mountain retreat nestled among mature pines with dual driveways and a 2-car garage—offering rare parking flexibility in a mountain setting. Built in 1987, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home features approximately 1,640 sq ft of living space. The main level welcomes you with a spacious living room showcasing a cozy stone fireplace, wood-beamed ceilings, and abundant natural light. The adjacent kitchen offers ample cabinetry, updated countertops, and a functional layout that flows into a dedicated dining area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Step outside to an elevated deck surrounded by trees, creating a peaceful outdoor setting, plus a lower patio area with custom stonework that adds to the property’s charm and usability. The tri-level layout provides separation of space, with a bedroom on the entry level (garage level) and additional bedrooms on the upper floor. Interior features include wood-style flooring, ceiling fans, and a mix of updated and original character throughout. Additional highlights include a 10x12 storage shed (included), and two separate driveways—one approximately 27’ deep x 13’ wide and a second approximately 46’ deep x 18’ wide—ideal for multiple vehicles, guests, or recreational storage. A great opportunity for a full-time residence, second home, or investment in a desirable mountain setting.

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $469,000 Active 1416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

    Charming tri-level mountain retreat nestled among mature pines with dual driveways and a 2-car garage—offering rare parking flexibility in a mountain setting. Built in 1987, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home features approximately 1,640 sq ft of living space. The main level welcomes you with a spacious living room showcasing a cozy stone fireplace, wood-beamed ceilings, and abundant natural light. The adjacent kitchen offers ample cabinetry, updated countertops, and a functional layout that flows into a dedicated dining area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Step outside to an elevated deck surrounded by trees, creating a peaceful outdoor setting, plus a lower patio area with custom stonework that adds to the property’s charm and usability. The tri-level layout provides separation of space, with a bedroom on the entry level (garage level) and additional bedrooms on the upper floor. Interior features include wood-style flooring, ceiling fans, and a mix of updated and original character throughout. Additional highlights include a 10x12 storage shed (included), and two separate driveways—one approximately 27’ deep x 13’ wide and a second approximately 46’ deep x 18’ wide—ideal for multiple vehicles, guests, or recreational storage. A great opportunity for a full-time residence, second home, or investment in a desirable mountain setting.

16. 2019-06-20
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed Sale 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    come enjoy this mountain home. Winter rental potential or your primary residence. This home has endless opportunities, offering a great room with a fireplace, a rear deck overlooking the backyard patio as well as offering mountainous views.

17. 2019-06-20
    soldstatus $250,000

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    come enjoy this mountain home. Winter rental potential or your primary residence. This home has endless opportunities, offering a great room with a fireplace, a rear deck overlooking the backyard patio as well as offering mountainous views.

18. 2019-05-09
    status Pending Sale 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    come enjoy this mountain home. Winter rental potential or your primary residence. This home has endless opportunities, offering a great room with a fireplace, a rear deck overlooking the backyard patio as well as offering mountainous views.

19. 2019-04-24
    price $259,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    come enjoy this mountain home. Winter rental potential or your primary residence. This home has endless opportunities, offering a great room with a fireplace, a rear deck overlooking the backyard patio as well as offering mountainous views.

20. 2019-04-11
    price $269,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    come enjoy this mountain home. Winter rental potential or your primary residence. This home has endless opportunities, offering a great room with a fireplace, a rear deck overlooking the backyard patio as well as offering mountainous views.

21. 2019-04-03
    listed $289,900 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    come enjoy this mountain home. Winter rental potential or your primary residence. This home has endless opportunities, offering a great room with a fireplace, a rear deck overlooking the backyard patio as well as offering mountainous views.

22. 2019-03-30
    historical
23. 2019-03-30
    historical
24. 2018-09-27
    listed $274,000
25. 2018-09-27
    listed $274,000
26. 2013-06-07
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed
27. 2013-06-07
    soldstatus $150,000
28. 2013-06-07
    soldstatus $150,000
29. 2013-04-12
    status Pending
30. 2013-01-14
    listed $160,000 Active
31. 2013-01-12
    listed $160,000
32. 1999-04-16
    soldstatus $96,500
33. 1991-07-31
    soldstatus $143,500
34. 1988-05-26
    soldstatus $86,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,263 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,412 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$150/yr (+$12/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$3,263
• − Insurance: −$2,912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,032
• − Management: −$4,032
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$2,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$492
• After-tax cash flow: $5,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowline Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #9157
• State rank: #722 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Wrightwood

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1155
• US rank: #25815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment B Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wrightwood, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,699

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.26%
• Current HPI: 304.3802
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+430.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $459,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $469,000 CRMLS
• 2019-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-20 Sold (MLS) $250,000 CRMLS
• 2019-05-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2019-04-24 Price Changed $259,900 CRMLS
• 2019-04-11 Price Changed $269,900 CRMLS
• 2019-04-03 Listed $289,900 CRMLS
• 2019-03-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-03-30 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2018-09-27 Listed $274,000 CRMLS
• 2018-09-27 Listed $274,000 SDMLS
• 2013-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-07 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CRMLS
• 2013-06-07 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CRMLS
• 2013-04-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2013-01-14 Listed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2013-01-12 Listed $160,000 CRMLS
• 1999-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $96,500 Public Records
• 1991-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $143,500 Public Records
• 1988-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $86,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,263 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.