476 Fillmore Ave · Buffalo, NY 14206

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1900

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Centraly located in the historical Broadway and Fillmore area, and walking distance to downtown events. Ready to move in as is and let the rear tenant pay the mortgage or $2300 potential for both units. $1500 front $800 rear. Interested parties can text 716-259-0334 or email [email protected] for valid offers. The vacant lot next to 476 Fillmore Avenue (474 Fillmore Avenue) will be included in the sale.

Key facts

• Built 1900
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1900; Single-family property
• Construction: 1618 square feet of living area
• Exterior features: Located in the Broadway - Fillmore neighborhood

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $200k implies a 899% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,346 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,844
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 Howard St	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,686 (+4%)	7mo	$57,000	$34	72
156 Clark St	0.34mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,637 (+1%)	22mo	$95,000	$58	59
102 Guilford St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,572 (-3%)	17mo	$134,500	$86	51
57 Jones St	0.53mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,497 (-8%)	12mo	$72,000	$48	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $75,308
• Equity at exit: $152,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $224,376
• Equity at exit: $303,797

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $182,155

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-54	+0% $-123	+5% $-192	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-249	-5% $-186	+0% $-123	+5% $-60	+10% $3
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-72	base $-123	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Seymour St Unit First Floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	5d	1	0.72mi
140 Seymour St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	0.72mi
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	25d	1	1.29mi
901 S Park Ave Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1729	$1,600	$0.93	25d	1	1.43mi
983 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$3,202	$3.98	3d	58	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $199,900 Active 407-char remark
17. 2011-10-28
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,188
• After-tax cash flow: $-284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+899.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $199,900 FSBO.com
• 2011-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $231 · +79.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.