1100 Pecan Rdg · Venus, TX 76084

$230,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Manufactured public records · 270 Days on market

Built 2001 1.00 ac lot $109/sqft · 50% below area Est $245k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious Doublewide 1 Acre! Enjoy country living with city convenience in this roomy doublewide home sitting on a full acre. Located just minutes from major highways and nearby cities, this property offers both accessibility and freedom. With animals permitted, you'll have space for pets, livestock, or a small hobby farm. Extra room is available for RV parking, storage and future expansions-giving you, endless possibilities to make it your own.

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Future expansions
• Animals permitted

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• ANIMALS PERMITTED
• RV PARKING
• FUTURE EXPANSIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.09%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,900
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -6.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $104,229
• Equity at exit: $164,224

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $284,106
• Equity at exit: $316,438

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,568/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,024

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $392	+0% $327	+5% $262	+10% $197
Rent	-10% $134	-5% $230	+0% $327	+5% $423	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $385	base $327	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   Spacious Doublewide 1 Acre! Enjoy country living with city convenience in this roomy doublewide home sitting on a full acre. Located just minutes from major highways and nearby cities, this property offers both accessibility and freedom. With animals permitted, you'll have space for pets, livestock, or a small hobby farm. Extra room is available for RV parking, storage and future expansions-giving you, endless possibilities to make it your own.

2. 2026-02-09
   price $230,000 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   Spacious Doublewide 1 Acre! Enjoy country living with city convenience in this roomy doublewide home sitting on a full acre. Located just minutes from major highways and nearby cities, this property offers both accessibility and freedom. With animals permitted, you'll have space for pets, livestock, or a small hobby farm. Extra room is available for RV parking, storage and future expansions-giving you, endless possibilities to make it your own.

3. 2025-12-19
   price $239,000 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   Spacious Doublewide 1 Acre! Enjoy country living with city convenience in this roomy doublewide home sitting on a full acre. Located just minutes from major highways and nearby cities, this property offers both accessibility and freedom. With animals permitted, you'll have space for pets, livestock, or a small hobby farm. Extra room is available for RV parking, storage and future expansions-giving you, endless possibilities to make it your own.

4. 2025-12-19
   price $249,000 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   Spacious Doublewide 1 Acre! Enjoy country living with city convenience in this roomy doublewide home sitting on a full acre. Located just minutes from major highways and nearby cities, this property offers both accessibility and freedom. With animals permitted, you'll have space for pets, livestock, or a small hobby farm. Extra room is available for RV parking, storage and future expansions-giving you, endless possibilities to make it your own.

5. 2025-09-17
   price $240,000 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   Spacious Doublewide 1 Acre! Enjoy country living with city convenience in this roomy doublewide home sitting on a full acre. Located just minutes from major highways and nearby cities, this property offers both accessibility and freedom. With animals permitted, you'll have space for pets, livestock, or a small hobby farm. Extra room is available for RV parking, storage and future expansions-giving you, endless possibilities to make it your own.

6. 2025-08-16
   listed $250,000 Active 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   Spacious Doublewide 1 Acre! Enjoy country living with city convenience in this roomy doublewide home sitting on a full acre. Located just minutes from major highways and nearby cities, this property offers both accessibility and freedom. With animals permitted, you'll have space for pets, livestock, or a small hobby farm. Extra room is available for RV parking, storage and future expansions-giving you, endless possibilities to make it your own.

7. 2018-08-29
   soldstatus
8. 2018-08-24
   soldstatus Sold 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   Bring the family and the dog. Large fenced lot with plenty of room to play. Great fireplace for those chilly nights. Large, Sturdy front porch. This is a great home. Great location. Brand new dishwasher. Ready for you to call home!!

9. 2018-07-23
   historical Active Option Contract 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   Bring the family and the dog. Large fenced lot with plenty of room to play. Great fireplace for those chilly nights. Large, Sturdy front porch. This is a great home. Great location. Brand new dishwasher. Ready for you to call home!!

10. 2018-07-10
    listed $145,000 Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Bring the family and the dog. Large fenced lot with plenty of room to play. Great fireplace for those chilly nights. Large, Sturdy front porch. This is a great home. Great location. Brand new dishwasher. Ready for you to call home!!

11. 2013-11-08
    soldstatus Closed
12. 2013-02-19
    listed $89,900 Active
13. 2009-11-25
    soldstatus
14. 2009-11-15
    historical
15. 2009-11-13
    listed $79,900
16. 2008-01-14
    soldstatus
17. 2008-01-11
    soldstatus
18. 2007-12-10
    historical
19. 2007-08-17
    listed $39,500
20. 2007-07-25
    soldstatus
21. 2005-10-12
    soldstatus
22. 2005-07-01
    soldstatus
23. 2005-06-20
    soldstatus
24. 2005-03-01
    historical
25. 2005-01-17
    listed $54,900
26. 2001-11-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$641/yr (+$53/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,568
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,341
• − Management: −$2,341
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$68
• After-tax cash flow: $3,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+318.9% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $249,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-16 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2018-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-07-23 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-07-10 Listed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2013-11-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-02-19 Listed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2009-11-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2009-11-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2009-11-13 Listed $79,900 NTREIS
• 2008-01-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-01-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-12-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2007-08-17 Listed $39,500 NTREIS
• 2007-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-10-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-03-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-01-17 Listed $54,900 NTREIS
• 2001-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,568 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.