157 Security Ln · Florin, CA 95828

$199,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition $178/sqft · 14% above area Est $176k · 14% over $350/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Cedarwood Resident Owned Mobile Home Park a wonderful 55+ community with no space rent! This cute and cozy 3-bedroom, 2-bathroon home has been beautifully updated throughout and is ready for you to move right in. The inviting kitchen features custom hardwood cabinets, Corian countertops, laminate flooring, and plenty of storage and workspace. Newer carpet in April 2026 adds warmth and comfort throughout the home. Spacious primary suite includes an updated bathroom with a step-in shower, updated vanity, countertop, and fixtures. Guest bath has also been refreshed and features a shower over the bathtub. Convenient utility room offers built-in cabinets for additional storage. Enjoy

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Corian countertops
• Step-in shower

Tags

• CUSTOM HARDWOOD CABINETS
• CORIAN COUNTERTOPS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• STEP-IN SHOWER
• UPDATED VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Location: 157 Security Ln, Sacramento, CA 95828; Cedarwood on the north side of Gerber Road (directions available)
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with monthly fee; Association fee: $350 monthly (includes trash and water); Community amenities: pool, clubhouse, game room, RV storage, guest parking, activities available; park interview and pet restrictions apply; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in laundry; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Built in 1987
• Construction: Fleetwood make; Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Regular-shaped landscaped lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area / breakfast nook; Pantry cabinet; Microwave; Disposal; Free-standing electric oven and range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted great room; Skylight(s); Dual-pane full windows; Covered deck and porch; Shed(s) on property; Pets allowed with size limits
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.6% in Florin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#673 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,515 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.43%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,556
• List price: $199,500
• Delta: 13.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Wyndbrook St	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+3%)	8mo	$149,900	$130	81
48 Millbrook Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+3%)	13mo	$212,000	$184	75
131 Hibiscus Ave	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+3%)	1mo	$94,000	$82	75
51 Millbrook Cir	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+11%)	1mo	$180,000	$144	72
8622 Beauxart Cir #39	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+7%)	1mo	$270,000	$225	71
7428 Bouvais Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (0%)	13mo	$285,000	$254	69
7 Pina	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+3%)	3mo	$96,000	$83	64
5 Pina St	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+3%)	5mo	$108,000	$94	62
155 Security Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+14%)	18mo	$255,000	$200	61
143 Lirios Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+11%)	8mo	$122,500	$98	56
7400 Carondelet Ln	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-7%)	12mo	$250,000	$240	53
8593 Calais Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	20mo	$325,000	$260	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,537
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,382
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95828

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,992/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,188

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $437	-5% $368	+0% $299	+5% $230	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $96	-5% $198	+0% $299	+5% $401	+10% $502
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $350	base $299	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7756 Southbreeze Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,395	$1.84	2d	1	0.53mi
8620 Tiogawoods Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1137	$2,750	$2.42	8d	1	0.69mi
8550 Florin Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	776	$1,795	$2.31	3d	16	0.89mi
7575 Power Inn Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	729	$1,950	$2.67	2d	5	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $199,500 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,500 Contingent (Show) 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,500 Contingent (Show) 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,500 Contingent (Show) 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $199,500 Contingent (Show) 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,500 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,500 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,500 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,500 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$2,992
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,464
• − Management: −$2,464
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable income: $707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $3,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is move-in ready with updated interiors and a clean exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves durability and adds value
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves durability and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Florin

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #20705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florin, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 60,532
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,686
• Household income: $81,778
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1765.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 16% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Vietnamese 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 962.47
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B