509 Smith Rd · Springtown, TX 76082

$293,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,939 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 0.27 ac lot $151/sqft · 18% below area Est $356k · 18% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for one to make your own? No HOA and 100% financing available for those qualifying under a USDA loan. Check out this 2023 built 4 bedroom 2 bath home with open floor plan. Large island kitchen with granite counters and abundant storage overlooking breakfast area and living room with wall of windows and wood burning fireplace. Private primary suite and ensuite bath complete with garden tub, oversized separate shower, double sink vanity and walk in closet are located on the back side of the house. All 3 remaining bedrooms are equal in size and located on the opposite side of the house. The privacy fenced large grassed backyard is a perfect spot for a pool, patio, garden or storage shed, etc.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Large island kitchen
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• ABUNDANT STORAGE
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $293k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-425 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Springtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#461 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Springtown ISD (town): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 519 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($284k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,862 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.22%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,803
• List price: $293,000
• Delta: -17.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1240 Sabine River Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,004 (+3%)	2mo	$348,900	$174	87
1237 Colca Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (+3%)	2mo	$359,575	$180	84
1249 Sabine River Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (+3%)	1mo	$364,900	$183	84
1228 Sabine River Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (+3%)	2mo	$359,575	$180	83
1005 Springfield Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,948 (+0%)	4mo	$345,000	$177	80
1248 Sabine River Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (+3%)	7mo	$364,900	$183	79
1101 Springfield Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,797 (-7%)	0mo	$338,000	$188	78
1232 Sabine River Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (+6%)	4mo	$339,900	$165	77
1233 Colca Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (+6%)	5mo	$344,900	$168	73
1252 Colca Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,176 (+12%)	8mo	$386,475	$178	68
1108 Trinity Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (+6%)	6mo	$379,900	$185	60
544 Jameson St	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,773 (-9%)	5mo	$308,900	$174	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-74,379
• Equity at exit: $43,687

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-98,879
• Equity at exit: $25,333

Cash invested: $82,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76082

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Active inventory: 519
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,537
• Tax from tax record: −$618 /mo · $7,411/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,881

Max offer price $217,862

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,250
• Closing costs: $8,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
413 Jameson Springtown, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,125	$1.50	19d	1	0.78mi
217 N Spring Branch Trl Springtown, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	12d	1	1.41mi
217 N Spring Branch Trl Springtown, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,050	$1.58	3d	1	1.41mi
821 E Highway 199 Springtown, TX	3.0	2.0	2205	$2,600	$1.18	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $293,000 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $293,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $293,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $293,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $293,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $293,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $293,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-05-15
   price $293,000 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Looking for one to make your own? No HOA and 100% financing available for those qualifying under a USDA loan. Check out this 2023 built 4 bedroom 2 bath home with open floor plan. Large island kitchen with granite counters and abundant storage overlooking breakfast area and living room with wall of windows and wood burning fireplace. Private primary suite and ensuite bath complete with garden tub, oversized separate shower, double sink vanity and walk in closet are located on the back side of the house. All 3 remaining bedrooms are equal in size and located on the opposite side of the house. The privacy fenced large grassed backyard is a perfect spot for a pool, patio, garden or storage shed, etc.

9. 2026-04-13
   listed $307,500 Active 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Looking for one to make your own? No HOA and 100% financing available for those qualifying under a USDA loan. Check out this 2023 built 4 bedroom 2 bath home with open floor plan. Large island kitchen with granite counters and abundant storage overlooking breakfast area and living room with wall of windows and wood burning fireplace. Private primary suite and ensuite bath complete with garden tub, oversized separate shower, double sink vanity and walk in closet are located on the back side of the house. All 3 remaining bedrooms are equal in size and located on the opposite side of the house. The privacy fenced large grassed backyard is a perfect spot for a pool, patio, garden or storage shed, etc.

10. 2024-02-16
    soldstatus Closed 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    No HOA! The kitchen is positioned against the back wall as the stage so you can look out and observe all things going on. With three equally-sized spare bedrooms, you’ll have space for your family and any visitors. A walk-in mudroom off the garage allows for more storage of shoes, bags, and all your day-to-day items. The Lavon home is perfect for a busy and active family needing space to come together as well as everyone’s own private space. The owner’s suite is a perfect getaway, tucked in the back corner past the family room. Entering this space, you’ll have a splendid view into the backyard. All the natural light will make this oasis feel even more tranquil. The bedroom leads into the owner's bath with a double-sink vanity, stand-up shower, and tub perfect for unwinding after a long day!

11. 2024-01-15
    historical Active Kick-Out 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    No HOA! The kitchen is positioned against the back wall as the stage so you can look out and observe all things going on. With three equally-sized spare bedrooms, you’ll have space for your family and any visitors. A walk-in mudroom off the garage allows for more storage of shoes, bags, and all your day-to-day items. The Lavon home is perfect for a busy and active family needing space to come together as well as everyone’s own private space. The owner’s suite is a perfect getaway, tucked in the back corner past the family room. Entering this space, you’ll have a splendid view into the backyard. All the natural light will make this oasis feel even more tranquil. The bedroom leads into the owner's bath with a double-sink vanity, stand-up shower, and tub perfect for unwinding after a long day!

12. 2023-09-19
    price $380,150 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    No HOA! The kitchen is positioned against the back wall as the stage so you can look out and observe all things going on. With three equally-sized spare bedrooms, you’ll have space for your family and any visitors. A walk-in mudroom off the garage allows for more storage of shoes, bags, and all your day-to-day items. The Lavon home is perfect for a busy and active family needing space to come together as well as everyone’s own private space. The owner’s suite is a perfect getaway, tucked in the back corner past the family room. Entering this space, you’ll have a splendid view into the backyard. All the natural light will make this oasis feel even more tranquil. The bedroom leads into the owner's bath with a double-sink vanity, stand-up shower, and tub perfect for unwinding after a long day!

13. 2023-07-07
    listed $393,175 Active 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    No HOA! The kitchen is positioned against the back wall as the stage so you can look out and observe all things going on. With three equally-sized spare bedrooms, you’ll have space for your family and any visitors. A walk-in mudroom off the garage allows for more storage of shoes, bags, and all your day-to-day items. The Lavon home is perfect for a busy and active family needing space to come together as well as everyone’s own private space. The owner’s suite is a perfect getaway, tucked in the back corner past the family room. Entering this space, you’ll have a splendid view into the backyard. All the natural light will make this oasis feel even more tranquil. The bedroom leads into the owner's bath with a double-sink vanity, stand-up shower, and tub perfect for unwinding after a long day!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,411 · $618/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,411 · $618/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,413
• − Property taxes: −$7,411
• − Insurance: −$1,465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,249
• − Management: −$2,249
• − Depreciation: −$8,524
• Taxable loss: −$10,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,447
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2023-built home offers a good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springtown ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,136
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5474
• State rank: #435 of 826 in TX

Livability — Springtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #9298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• City population: 24,880
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,880
• Household income: $92,485
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 333.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.65%
• Current HPI: 262.1991
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $293,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $307,500 NTREIS
• 2024-02-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-01-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-09-19 Price Changed $380,150 NTREIS
• 2023-07-07 Listed $393,175 NTREIS

Property tax history

+196.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,411 · +23.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.