11A Birch St Unit A · Pine Lake Park, NJ 08757

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Condo · 239 Days on market

Built 1950 Good condition $486/mo HOA ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy privacy, updates, and easy living at Cedar Glen Homes, a well-established adult co-op community known for its affordability and peaceful setting. This updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is tucked away in a private location, offering a quiet retreat with minimal through traffic. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, well-maintained space that’s been thoughtfully updated, making it truly move-in ready and ideal for low-stress living. Located in Toms River with a Manchester mailing address, Cedar Glen Homes offers a low-maintenance lifestyle close to shopping, dining, medical facilities, and everyday essentials. The Jersey Shore, local parks, and major roadways are all within easy reach. If you’re looking to downsize into a private, updated home with manageable living and excellent value, this is an opportunity worth seeing.

Key facts

• $486 HOA
• Built 1950
• Listed 239 days

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $119,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.7% in Pine Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#377 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,374/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.42%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,810
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: 38.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $17,168
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $62,815
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$486
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,656

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $649	-5% $608	+0% $567	+5% $526	+10% $485
Rent	-10% $380	-5% $473	+0% $567	+5% $661	+10% $755
Rate	-1.0pp $627	-0.5pp $597	base $567	+0.5pp $536	+1.0pp $505

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	44d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $486 · $5,832/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,000 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    status Active 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Enjoy privacy, updates, and easy living at Cedar Glen Homes, a well-established adult co-op community known for its affordability and peaceful setting. This updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is tucked away in a private location, offering a quiet retreat with minimal through traffic. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, well-maintained space that’s been thoughtfully updated, making it truly move-in ready and ideal for low-stress living. Located in Toms River with a Manchester mailing address, Cedar Glen Homes offers a low-maintenance lifestyle close to shopping, dining, medical facilities, and everyday essentials. The Jersey Shore, local parks, and major roadways are all within easy reach. If you’re looking to downsize into a private, updated home with manageable living and excellent value, this is an opportunity worth seeing.

15. 2026-04-16
    historical 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Enjoy privacy, updates, and easy living at Cedar Glen Homes, a well-established adult co-op community known for its affordability and peaceful setting. This updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is tucked away in a private location, offering a quiet retreat with minimal through traffic. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, well-maintained space that’s been thoughtfully updated, making it truly move-in ready and ideal for low-stress living. Located in Toms River with a Manchester mailing address, Cedar Glen Homes offers a low-maintenance lifestyle close to shopping, dining, medical facilities, and everyday essentials. The Jersey Shore, local parks, and major roadways are all within easy reach. If you’re looking to downsize into a private, updated home with manageable living and excellent value, this is an opportunity worth seeing.

16. 2026-03-19
    price $119,000 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Enjoy privacy, updates, and easy living at Cedar Glen Homes, a well-established adult co-op community known for its affordability and peaceful setting. This updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is tucked away in a private location, offering a quiet retreat with minimal through traffic. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, well-maintained space that’s been thoughtfully updated, making it truly move-in ready and ideal for low-stress living. Located in Toms River with a Manchester mailing address, Cedar Glen Homes offers a low-maintenance lifestyle close to shopping, dining, medical facilities, and everyday essentials. The Jersey Shore, local parks, and major roadways are all within easy reach. If you’re looking to downsize into a private, updated home with manageable living and excellent value, this is an opportunity worth seeing.

17. 2025-10-17
    listed $125,000 Active 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Enjoy privacy, updates, and easy living at Cedar Glen Homes, a well-established adult co-op community known for its affordability and peaceful setting. This updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is tucked away in a private location, offering a quiet retreat with minimal through traffic. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, well-maintained space that’s been thoughtfully updated, making it truly move-in ready and ideal for low-stress living. Located in Toms River with a Manchester mailing address, Cedar Glen Homes offers a low-maintenance lifestyle close to shopping, dining, medical facilities, and everyday essentials. The Jersey Shore, local parks, and major roadways are all within easy reach. If you’re looking to downsize into a private, updated home with manageable living and excellent value, this is an opportunity worth seeing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$5,832
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $5,590
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,342
• After-tax cash flow: $5,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready condo is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It has potential for further value increases with minor cosmetic improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes spaces and increases value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes spaces and increases value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Lake Park

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #12719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $119,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS