449 An County Road 410 · Palestine, TX 75803

$167,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1985 1.14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location, Location, Location! This beautifully remodeled 4-BR, 2-BA mobile home is perfectly situated north of Palestine in one of the area’s most sought-after locations, surrounded by larger tracts and custom homes. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway, starter home, or investment property, this one could be it! Set on an impressive 1.139 acres, the property offers an incredible outdoor experience with a detached double carport, fenced yard, & a welcoming firepit area—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Built in 1985 & recently updated, the home features a spacious open-concept floor plan with a kitchen offering tons of cabinetry & a large break

Key facts

• Firepit area
• Fenced yard
• Large breakfast bar

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• DETACHED DOUBLE CARPORT
• FENCED YARD
• FIREPIT AREA
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.9% in Palestine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#657 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Palestine ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #509 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Palestine J H (math 41% / reading 44%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 493 students, 78% FRL); Palestine H S (math 44% / reading 41%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 998 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Anderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anderson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,990 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.32%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,431
• Equity at exit: $24,900

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $10,042
• Equity at exit: $14,439

Cash invested: $46,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75803

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,111/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,314

Max offer price $167,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,750
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   listed $167,000 Active
3. 2026-02-23
   status Active
4. 2026-02-17
   soldstatus
5. 2026-02-17
   soldstatus
6. 2026-01-13
   listed $167,000 Active
7. 1985-03-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,111 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,945/yr (+$162/mo · 175.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,355
• − Property taxes: −$1,111
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable income: $225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$54
• After-tax cash flow: $2,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palestine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834050
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,881
• Composite: 30.34/100
• National rank: #6267
• State rank: #509 of 826 in TX

Livability — Palestine

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #12357

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,531
• Population (ZIP): 21,390

Population outlook (Anderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,663 people
• By 2030: 57,373 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 58,960 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 59,073 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 53,737 · -5.2%
• By 2100: 42,516 · -25.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 17% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.8% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.92%
• Current HPI: 186.4885
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-02-23 Listed $167,000 GTAR
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — PAOR
• 2026-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-13 Listed $167,000 PAOR
• 1985-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,111 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.