2202 SW 39th Dr · Gainesville, FL 32607

$134,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,094 sqft · Townhouse public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1985 436 sqft lot $216/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready end unit located in Mill Run! Conveniently located 1/2 mile to UF campus, Shands, NFRMC, Butler Plaza, Archer Road shopping, restaurants and movie theaters. As you enter this 2 Bedrooms 2.5 Bathrooms townhouse you will encounter the kitchen with garden window, pantry, new cabinets and counter top which looks out to dining area and naturally flows thru the living room. Living area overlooks screened patio. Sliding glass doors lead to covered screened porch and utility room with washer, dryer and storage. Privacy fenced backyard makes it perfect for pet owners and cooking out. New light fixtures and fans, ceramic tile flooring throughout downstairs and wet areas. Going up the stairs you will find both bedrooms and bathrooms. The master suite has vaulted ceilings, carpet, large updated walk-in closet and bathroom with newer cabinets and a glass walk-in shower. Bus route to University of Florida is located right outside of the complex. It has Low HOA fees which cover roof, exterior maintenance, and community pool. Contact realtor today, this amazing deal will not last long. 3-4 Units.

Key facts

• Screened back patio
• Community pool
• End unit

Tags

• END UNIT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• SCREENED BACK PATIO
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Universal property ID available; Furnished: Unfurnished
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $216; Total annual fees $2,592; Lease restrictions not required
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $216; HOA includes pool access; Pets allowed; Development: Mill Run; Association approval not required

Exterior

• Parking: Parking information not provided
• Security: Security information not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Completed condition; Two stories; Faces southwest; Entry level information not provided
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area about 1,094 (public records)
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Wood fencing; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room and dining room combo; Blinds on windows; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room (outside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 245 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $102k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,990 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.94%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-17,710
• Equity at exit: $19,980

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-20,288
• Equity at exit: $11,586

Cash invested: $37,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32607

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,099/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$216
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $134,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4781 SW 36th Rd Gainesville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1137	$2,340	$2.06	13d	61	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $216 · $2,592/yr
• Likely covers: exterior maint.pool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $134,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $134,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $134,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $134,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $134,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-05-19
   listed $134,000 Active
7. 2026-05-06
   price $1,350
8. 2026-03-26
   listed $1,400
9. 2020-05-05
   soldstatus $102,500
10. 2020-04-30
    soldstatus $102,500 1111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1111 chars)

    Move-in ready end unit located in Mill Run! Conveniently located 1/2 mile to UF campus, Shands, NFRMC, Butler Plaza, Archer Road shopping, restaurants and movie theaters. As you enter this 2 Bedrooms 2.5 Bathrooms townhouse you will encounter the kitchen with garden window, pantry, new cabinets and counter top which looks out to dining area and naturally flows thru the living room. Living area overlooks screened patio. Sliding glass doors lead to covered screened porch and utility room with washer, dryer and storage. Privacy fenced backyard makes it perfect for pet owners and cooking out. New light fixtures and fans, ceramic tile flooring throughout downstairs and wet areas. Going up the stairs you will find both bedrooms and bathrooms. The master suite has vaulted ceilings, carpet, large updated walk-in closet and bathroom with newer cabinets and a glass walk-in shower. Bus route to University of Florida is located right outside of the complex. It has Low HOA fees which cover roof, exterior maintenance, and community pool. Contact realtor today, this amazing deal will not last long. 3-4 Units.

11. 2020-03-19
    listed $109,000 1111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1111 chars)

    Move-in ready end unit located in Mill Run! Conveniently located 1/2 mile to UF campus, Shands, NFRMC, Butler Plaza, Archer Road shopping, restaurants and movie theaters. As you enter this 2 Bedrooms 2.5 Bathrooms townhouse you will encounter the kitchen with garden window, pantry, new cabinets and counter top which looks out to dining area and naturally flows thru the living room. Living area overlooks screened patio. Sliding glass doors lead to covered screened porch and utility room with washer, dryer and storage. Privacy fenced backyard makes it perfect for pet owners and cooking out. New light fixtures and fans, ceramic tile flooring throughout downstairs and wet areas. Going up the stairs you will find both bedrooms and bathrooms. The master suite has vaulted ceilings, carpet, large updated walk-in closet and bathroom with newer cabinets and a glass walk-in shower. Bus route to University of Florida is located right outside of the complex. It has Low HOA fees which cover roof, exterior maintenance, and community pool. Contact realtor today, this amazing deal will not last long. 3-4 Units.

12. 2009-08-22
    historical
13. 2009-07-24
    listed $120,000
14. 2004-08-06
    soldstatus $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,099 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,099 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$3,099
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − HOA: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable loss: −$465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$112
• After-tax cash flow: $1,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,720
• Household income: $45,987
• Rent vs Own: 66.0% rent · 34.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3418.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.86%
• Current HPI: 270.183
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.60%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+91.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $134,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $1,350 STELLARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed for Rent $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2020-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 2020-04-30 Sold (MLS) $102,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-19 Listed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-24 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,099 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.