3943 Surf Rd · Sherwood Shores, TX 73439

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2006 10,454 sqft lot Est $346k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location…. location! This beautiful well-maintained home is just a short golf cart ride to Buncombe Creek Marina, boat ramp, and Anchor 'N Restaurant. Home boasts a large covered front patio great for entertaining, spacious open floor plan, and shop building. Perfect set up for living at the lake!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered front patio
• Formal dining area

Tags

• BOAT RAMP
• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• STORM CELLAR
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• METAL SHOP BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Marina access; Sidewalks in the community; Less than 1 mile to water

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces; RV access/parking; Boat parking
• Security: Storm shelter; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available (rural); Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces east; Permanent foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank siding; Stone veneer accents; Metal roof; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/deck; Patio; Deck; Outdoor lighting; Workshop; Partial chain link fencing; Storm shelter; Smoke detectors; Beach access to Texoma Lake; Boat ramp/lift access to Texoma Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Electric oven; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; Aluminum-framed windows; Electric oven/range connections
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.9% in Sherwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,519 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kingston (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #70 of 270 in OK (top 26%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kingston Es (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #210 of 845 statewide, top 25%, 620 students, 0% FRL); Kingston Ms (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #57 of 345 statewide, top 18%, 286 students, 0% FRL); Kingston Hs (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #150 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 362 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 76% district-wide (76 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,053 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,080
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4648 Angler Cir	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,792 (+7%)	7mo	$370,000	$206	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $152,818
• Equity at exit: $242,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $444,899
• Equity at exit: $522,608

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73439

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,241/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,164

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $176	+0% $100	+5% $24	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-81	-5% $10	+0% $100	+5% $190	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $168	base $100	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $269,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $269,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,000 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-03-17
    price $269,000
19. 2026-02-10
    listed $289,000 Active
20. 2024-05-07
    soldstatus $249,500
21. 2022-02-07
    soldstatus $186,500
22. 2022-02-02
    soldstatus $186,250 Closed 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Location…. location! This beautiful well-maintained home is just a short golf cart ride to Buncombe Creek Marina, boat ramp, and Anchor 'N Restaurant. Home boasts a large covered front patio great for entertaining, spacious open floor plan, and shop building. Perfect set up for living at the lake!

23. 2021-12-23
    status Pending 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Location…. location! This beautiful well-maintained home is just a short golf cart ride to Buncombe Creek Marina, boat ramp, and Anchor 'N Restaurant. Home boasts a large covered front patio great for entertaining, spacious open floor plan, and shop building. Perfect set up for living at the lake!

24. 2021-12-10
    listed $192,000 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Location…. location! This beautiful well-maintained home is just a short golf cart ride to Buncombe Creek Marina, boat ramp, and Anchor 'N Restaurant. Home boasts a large covered front patio great for entertaining, spacious open floor plan, and shop building. Perfect set up for living at the lake!

25. 2008-06-12
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,923 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,682/yr (+$223/mo · 119.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$2,241
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,199
• − Management: −$2,199
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$3,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$814
• After-tax cash flow: $2,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston
• NCES district ID: 4016590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,655
• Composite: 24.88/100
• National rank: #7585
• State rank: #70 of 270 in OK

Livability — Sherwood Shores

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1519
• US rank: #25941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,011

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 18,038 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 19,513 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 21,283 · +22.3%
• By 2075: 27,884 · +60.2%
• By 2100: 35,435 · +103.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.4) · D 17.7% · R 81.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -63.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.4 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.96%
• Current HPI: 246.2253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+497.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $269,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-10 Listed $289,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2024-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $249,500 Public Records
• 2022-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $186,500 Public Records
• 2022-02-02 Sold (MLS) $186,250 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-12-23 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-12-10 Listed $192,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2008-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,241 · +70.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.