305 E 4th Ave · Petal, MS 39465

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1960 9,226 sqft lot $143/sqft · 14% below area Est $153k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the heart of Petal! Priced at $130,000, this well-maintained property offers a comfortable layout featuring a bright and open living area, a functional kitchen, and a fenced backyard. Conveniently situated near local schools, shopping, and dining, it's perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Enjoy a spacious yard with room for outdoor activities and relaxation. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of Petal at an exceptional value!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Spacious yard
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS YARD
• BRIGHT AND OPEN LIVING AREA
• LOCATED IN THE HEART OF PETAL
• NEAR LOCAL SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($97/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.0% in Petal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#18 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Petal School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #2 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Forrest County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Forrest County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $130k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,203 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.39%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,382
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -15.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 N George St	0.65mi	2/1.0	848 (-7%)	1mo	$99,500	$117	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-20,502
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-16,990
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39465

• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,060/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,202

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $45	+0% $8	+5% $-29	+10% $-66
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-40	+0% $8	+5% $56	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $74	-0.5pp $41	base $8	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
523 E Fifth Ave Petal, MS	3.0	1.0	1098	$1,500	$1.37	22d	1	0.32mi
120 E First Ave Petal, MS	2.0	1.0	1062	$995	$0.94	44d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the heart of Petal! Priced at $130,000, this well-maintained property offers a comfortable layout featuring a bright and open living area, a functional kitchen, and a fenced backyard. Conveniently situated near local schools, shopping, and dining, it's perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Enjoy a spacious yard with room for outdoor activities and relaxation. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of Petal at an exceptional value!

2. 2026-04-09
   listed $130,000 Active 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the heart of Petal! Priced at $130,000, this well-maintained property offers a comfortable layout featuring a bright and open living area, a functional kitchen, and a fenced backyard. Conveniently situated near local schools, shopping, and dining, it's perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Enjoy a spacious yard with room for outdoor activities and relaxation. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of Petal at an exceptional value!

3. 2023-02-23
   soldstatus 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Take a look at this charming home located in Downtown Petal. This home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, open living room and kitchen, carport and a fenced yard. Call today to schedule your showing.

4. 2023-02-23
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Take a look at this charming home located in Downtown Petal. This home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, open living room and kitchen, carport and a fenced yard. Call today to schedule your showing.

5. 2021-09-08
   soldstatus
6. 2021-08-01
   listed $89,900 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Take a look at this charming home located in Downtown Petal. This home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, open living room and kitchen, carport and a fenced yard. Call today to schedule your showing.

7. 2018-09-28
   listed $74,900
8. 2015-09-30
   soldstatus
9. 2015-08-28
   listed $59,500
10. 2009-01-26
    soldstatus $58,500
11. 2005-04-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,060 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,060 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,060
• − Insurance: −$2,152
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,164
• − Management: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$494
• After-tax cash flow: $591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petal School District
• NCES district ID: 2803530
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,872
• Composite: 52.97/100
• National rank: #1526
• State rank: #2 of 130 in MS

Livability — Petal

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #5565

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petal, MS
• County: Forrest County · 65,413 people
• City population: 22,882
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• Population (ZIP): 22,882
• Household income: $74,035
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Forrest County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,264 people
• By 2030: 80,822 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 82,979 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 84,324 · +6.4%
• By 2075: 84,942 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 80,616 · +1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Forrest

• 2024 margin: R (+17.9) · D 40.3% · R 58.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -17.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+11.7 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.97%
• Current HPI: 158.6021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+122.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HAAR
• 2026-04-09 Listed $130,000 HAAR
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2021-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-01 Listed $89,900 HAAR
• 2018-09-28 Listed $74,900 HAAR
• 2015-09-30 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2015-08-28 Listed $59,500 HAAR
• 2009-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 2005-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,060 · +20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.