Is 22646 Ellis Way Ln in New Caney, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.9% cap rate and $-338/mo modeled cash flow at a $279,540 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 22646 Ellis Way Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 4.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,231/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 32.25

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +7.7/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +2.9/10.0
1% rule +2.6/10.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
DSCR +1.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$279,540

22646 Ellis Way Ln · New Caney, TX 77357

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,255 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Inside, the main floor primary suite features dual sinks and a spacious walk-in closet. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

Key facts

Home office
Planned playground
2 garage spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (12.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (20.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $223k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: New Caney El (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 89% FRL); Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $223,073 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.76% ✗
Cap rate: 4.92%
Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
DSCR: 0.78
GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $294,838
List price: $279,540
Delta: 4.99%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18459 Landing Meadows Ln	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,180 (-3%)	1mo	$319,140	$146	88
18642 Christine Elizabeth Ln	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,214 (-2%)	0mo	$335,506	$152	85
22650 Ellis Way Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-12%)	0mo	$301,640	$152	79
22651 Ellis Way Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-12%)	0mo	$301,640	$152	78
18897 Lucas Michael Way	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+0%)	0mo	$295,040	$131	77
18925 Lucas Michael Way	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+0%)	1mo	$301,290	$133	77
22428 Kinley St	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,125 (-6%)	0mo	$319,990	$151	75
18673 Shauna Danielle Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+0%)	0mo	$296,990	$131	73
18684 Shauna Danielle Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	0mo	$293,540	$138	72
22778 Kaelynn St	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,990 (-12%)	0mo	$314,429	$158	66
22750 Kaelynn St	0.28mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,035 (-10%)	0mo	$307,918	$151	63
18436 Landing Meadows Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (-14%)	0mo	$280,840	$145	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -27.9%
Equity multiple: 0.09×
Total profit: $-75,341
Equity at exit: $43,961

10-year hold

IRR: -42.1%
Equity multiple: -0.41×
Total profit: $-116,697
Equity at exit: $25,492

Cash invested: $82,555 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 50 active · 45 under contract
Months of supply: 5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $295,205 ($143/sqft)
Median days on market: 53 d
This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -8.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

Home prices YoY: -24.7%
Rents YoY: 0.2%
Active inventory: 1238
Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,231 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,423/yr
Insurance: −$123
HOA: −$63
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
Net cashflow: $-338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,659

Max offer price $245,889

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-135	-5% $-236	+0% $-338	+5% $-440	+10% $-542
Rent	-10% $-515	-5% $-426	+0% $-338	+5% $-250	+10% $-162
Rate	-1.0pp $-190	-0.5pp $-263	base $-338	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $73,710
Closing costs: $8,845
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure provided
HOA & community: Community Solutions homeowners associationAnnual association fee of $750

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garageDrivewayGarage with door opener
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026
Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorBuilt by Meritage Homes
Exterior features: Covered patioFully fenced private yardSprinkler/irrigation systemPorchPatioDeck

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas oven and gas rangeMicrowaveDisposalRefrigeratorKitchen islandPantryENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
Flooring: Plank flooringTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (heat pump, electric)Central air conditioningAttic fan
Interior features: Double vanityGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomProgrammable thermostatInsulated doorsLow emissivity windows
Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included in appliance listWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $279,540 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-07

price $279,540 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $290,540 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $290,540 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $290,540 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $290,540 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $290,540 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $290,540 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $290,540 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $290,540 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $290,540 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $290,540 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $290,540 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $290,540 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $290,540 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $290,540 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $290,540 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $290,540 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $290,540 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $290,540 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $290,540 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $290,540 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $290,540 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $290,540 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $290,540 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $290,540 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $290,540 Active 40 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $290,540 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $290,540 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $290,540 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-02

pricedays on market $290,540 Active 36 DOM

Show marketing remark (202 chars)

Inside, the main floor primary suite features dual sinks and a spacious walk-in closet. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.
2026-07-01

days on market $289,540 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $289,540 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $289,540 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $289,540 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $289,540 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $289,540 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $289,540 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $289,540 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $289,540 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $289,540 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $289,540 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $289,540 Active 20 DOM

Show marketing remark (202 chars)

Inside, the main floor primary suite features dual sinks and a spacious walk-in closet. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.
2026-06-16

price $289,540 Active 19 DOM

Show marketing remark (202 chars)

Inside, the main floor primary suite features dual sinks and a spacious walk-in closet. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.
2026-06-15

days on market $311,540 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $311,540 Active 17 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $311,540 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $311,540 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $311,540 Active 11 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $311,540 Active 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $26,769
− Mortgage interest: −$16,516
− Property taxes: −$4,423
− Insurance: −$1,474
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
− Management: −$2,142
− HOA: −$756
− Depreciation: −$8,577
Taxable loss: −$9,260

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,222
After-tax cash flow: $-1,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new, energy-efficient home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for both buyers and renters seeking a comfortable and energy-efficient living space.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers. ↑
Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value. ↑
Both Add a smart thermostat — Reduces energy costs and enhances comfort for potential buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary New Caney El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Keefer Crossing Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: New Caney ISD
NCES district ID: 4832400
Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $55,380
Composite: 27.97/100
National rank: #6857
State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 37,592
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 37,592
Household income: $76,050
Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
Current HPI: 266.8315
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

2026-07-02 Price Changed $290,540 Zillow
2026-07-02 Price Changed $290,540 HARMLS
2026-06-16 Price Changed $289,540 Zillow
2026-06-16 Price Changed $289,540 HARMLS
2026-06-03 Price Changed $311,540 Zillow
2026-06-03 Price Changed $311,540 HARMLS
2026-05-27 Listed $309,540 HARMLS
2026-05-24 Price Changed $309,540 Zillow
2026-05-23 Price Changed $318,540 Zillow
2026-05-13 Relisted — Zillow
2026-05-13 Price Changed $317,540 Zillow
2026-04-24 Delisted — Zillow
2026-04-23 Price Changed $321,540 Zillow
2026-04-23 Relisted — Zillow
2025-10-24 Delisted — Zillow
2025-10-22 Listed $319,540 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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