3311 Potomac St · St. Louis, MO 63118

$99,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,202 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1916 3,123 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,123 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1916

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax information available (tax year 2025)

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two levels; Entry level includes main and upper living areas
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Near public transit

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level; 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Full walk-out basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $936 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Froebel Elem. (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,052 of 1,115 statewide, top 95%, 176 students, 98% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $79k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.50%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,108
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3420 Humphrey St	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,236 (+2%)	1mo	$439,000	$196	76
3447 Dunnica	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,232 (+1%)	1mo	$249,900	$112	73
3310 Michigan Ave	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,082 (-5%)	0mo	$299,900	$144	71
3442 Chippewa St	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,068 (-6%)	1mo	$199,500	$96	70
3413 Oregon Ave	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,268 (+3%)	2mo	$349,900	$154	68
3650 Juniata St	0.60mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,196 (-0%)	0mo	$514,900	$234	60
3408 Hartford St	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,312 (+5%)	1mo	$450,000	$195	57
3614 California Ave	0.52mi	5/4.5 (+1)	2,308 (+5%)	0mo	$449,900	$195	53
3166 Pennsylvania Ave	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,982 (-10%)	0mo	$227,500	$115	51
3244 Michigan Ave	0.32mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,504 (+14%)	0mo	$265,000	$106	51
2921 Virginia Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (-14%)	1mo	$335,000	$178	38
3704 Ohio Ave	0.67mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,938 (-12%)	1mo	$249,900	$129	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $47,438
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $134,623
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63118

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,036/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $936

Break-even live

Break-even rent $819

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3411 Cherokee St St. Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	43d	1	0.16mi
3540 Michigan Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1758	$1,800	$1.02	1d	1	0.19mi
3458 Giles Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	2204	$2,400	$1.09	7d	1	0.38mi
3526 S Spring Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	2244	$2,877	$1.28	43d	1	0.45mi
3510 California Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,200	$0.67	43d	1	0.48mi
3628 Wyoming St Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	43d	1	0.50mi
3131 Keokuk St #3131 Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	14d	1	0.50mi
3146 Keokuk St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1528	$1,500	$0.98	23d	1	0.52mi
3807 Potomac St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	2588	$1,100	$0.43	43d	1	0.56mi
3807 Potomac St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	2588	$1,300	$0.50	7d	1	0.56mi
3429 Ohio Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1938	$2,250	$1.16	16d	1	0.59mi
3908 McDonald Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,500	$1.30	4d	1	0.70mi
2643 Wyoming St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	2592	$2,600	$1.00	43d	1	0.73mi
4135 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	2104	$1,600	$0.76	43d	1	0.81mi
4145 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,520	$0.92	43d	1	0.83mi
3637 Meramec St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1632	$1,925	$1.18	17d	1	0.86mi
4222 S 38th St Unit 4222 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,400	$0.76	20d	1	0.91mi
3450 Wisconsin Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1219	$2,300	$1.89	1d	15	0.99mi
2648 California Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	2458	$2,000	$0.81	23d	1	1.03mi
4312 Oregon Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,000	$0.98	1d	1	1.10mi
2811 Missouri Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.5	2673	$3,622	$1.36	43d	1	1.14mi
4145-4147 Hartford St St. Louis, MO	4.0	3.5	2400	$3,800	$1.58	12d	1	1.21mi
4450 Pennsylvania Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,100	$0.73	4d	1	1.25mi
2253 Indiana Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	3.5	1760	$2,600	$1.48	7d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   status $99,000 Pending 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-05-20
   listed $99,000 Active
6. 2026-05-19
   historical $99,000
7. 2002-03-14
   soldstatus $79,475

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,036 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,036 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,036
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $10,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,456
• After-tax cash flow: $8,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 25,913
• Household income: $57,762
• Rent vs Own: 56.1% rent · 43.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1495.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 41% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.51%
• Current HPI: 171.5963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.89%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+24.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Coming Soon $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $79,475 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,036 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.