7008 Llano Dr · Waco, TX 76633

$290,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,667 sqft lot $183/sqft · at area comps Est $285k · at est. $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome HOME to China Spring! Located in Rivers Crossing, this 2022 Stylecraft home has been extensively upgraded with custom finishes by the owners. The formal entry welcomes you into the open concept entertaining area, where you will immediately notice crown molding, a tile backsplash and beautiful hardware that complements the granite counters in the kitchen. The center island and open layout are convenient for indoor-outdoor entertaining and the accent wall in the living area creates a beautiful focal point. Step out onto the covered patio to enjoy evenings overlooking the privacy fenced back yard. When it's time for privacy, you'll love the isolated primary suite with its' private bath that features dual vanities and a separate tub and shower. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are located near the hall bath, and bedroom 4 is also isolated {currently being used as a hobby room}. The roof has also been replaced with quality shingles for your peace of mind! Award winning China Spring High School and Lake Waco Golf Club are both moments away, with restaurants, shopping, and Waco Regional Airport within just a few minutes.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Custom finishes
• Granite counters

Tags

• CUSTOM FINISHES
• OPEN CONCEPT ENTERTAINING AREA
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• CENTER ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-981/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,000 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,872
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: 1.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7200 Guadalupe Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,612 (+2%)	1mo	$278,000	$172	86
7024 Sulphur Ct	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,662 (+5%)	7mo	$315,000	$190	81
7020 Llano Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (+3%)	10mo	$317,000	$194	78
7012 Llano Dr	0.01mi	4/3.0	1,814 (+14%)	3mo	$319,900	$176	71
6941 Guadalupe Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-6%)	8mo	$255,000	$170	70
6932 Sulphur Ct	0.10mi	4/3.0	1,800 (+13%)	2mo	$298,900	$166	69
7009 Guadalupe Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (-9%)	3mo	$259,900	$180	68
7201 Llano Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+13%)	2mo	$289,900	$161	67
7209 Guadalupe Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-6%)	11mo	$284,500	$190	62
11204 Echo Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,578 (-1%)	3mo	$279,900	$177	56
6405 Elephant Butte Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,578 (-1%)	12mo	$264,900	$168	48
242 Tulum Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,809 (+14%)	7mo	$300,000	$166	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-52,079
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-51,565
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76633

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$484 /mo · $5,809/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,703

Max offer price $275,559

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $0	+0% $-82	+5% $-164	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-287	-5% $-184	+0% $-82	+5% $21	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $-8	base $-82	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	23d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $290,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $290,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $290,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    listed $290,000 Active 1125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

    Welcome HOME to China Spring! Located in Rivers Crossing, this 2022 Stylecraft home has been extensively upgraded with custom finishes by the owners. The formal entry welcomes you into the open concept entertaining area, where you will immediately notice crown molding, a tile backsplash and beautiful hardware that complements the granite counters in the kitchen. The center island and open layout are convenient for indoor-outdoor entertaining and the accent wall in the living area creates a beautiful focal point. Step out onto the covered patio to enjoy evenings overlooking the privacy fenced back yard. When it's time for privacy, you'll love the isolated primary suite with its' private bath that features dual vanities and a separate tub and shower. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are located near the hall bath, and bedroom 4 is also isolated {currently being used as a hobby room}. The roof has also been replaced with quality shingles for your peace of mind! Award winning China Spring High School and Lake Waco Golf Club are both moments away, with restaurants, shopping, and Waco Regional Airport within just a few minutes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,809 · $484/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,809 · $484/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$5,809
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,405
• After-tax cash flow: $424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2022 Stylecraft home has been extensively upgraded with custom finishes and is in excellent condition. It is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• City population: 125,319
• Population (ZIP): 6,037

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.76%
• Current HPI: 242.4084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $290,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,809 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.