5209 Old US Hwy 41s · Lake Park, GA 31636

$159,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1984 1,742 sqft lot $158/sqft · at area comps Est $160k · at est. $120/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Access! Move-in-ready Lake Park condominium conveniently located just minutes form Valdosta, GA and the Florida state line. This updated end-unit condo features new interior paint, New plush carpet, and new stainless steel appliances . The main level offers an open- concept living & dining area with durable neutral tile flooring & access to a covered patio. The kitchen includes green cabinetry, and eat-at bar, & laundry room. Upstairs features 2 spacious bedrooms, a full bath, excellent storage, and a covered balcony. Enjoy the benefits of an end unit w/ large yard, new privacy fence, and separate oversize storage room. Ideal for homeowners or investors seeking a low maintenance property in a convenient location close to restaurants and shopping.

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Laundry room
• Covered patio

Tags

• LAKE PARK CONDOMINIUM
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• COVERED PATIO
• GREEN CABINETRY
• EAT-AT BAR
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.9% in Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#119 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $160k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.94%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,183
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -0.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5217 Anastasia St	0.05mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+3%)	2mo	$170,000	$163	84
5469 Old US Hwy. 41 South	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,146 (+13%)	15mo	$220,000	$192	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-14,185
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,739
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31636

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $438/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,344

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 116 DOM
18. 2026-05-02
    price $159,900 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Lake Access! Move-in-ready Lake Park condominium conveniently located just minutes form Valdosta, GA and the Florida state line. This updated end-unit condo features new interior paint, New plush carpet, and new stainless steel appliances . The main level offers an open- concept living & dining area with durable neutral tile flooring & access to a covered patio. The kitchen includes green cabinetry, and eat-at bar, & laundry room. Upstairs features 2 spacious bedrooms, a full bath, excellent storage, and a covered balcony. Enjoy the benefits of an end unit w/ large yard, new privacy fence, and separate oversize storage room. Ideal for homeowners or investors seeking a low maintenance property in a convenient location close to restaurants and shopping.

19. 2026-03-25
    price $165,000 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Lake Access! Move-in-ready Lake Park condominium conveniently located just minutes form Valdosta, GA and the Florida state line. This updated end-unit condo features new interior paint, New plush carpet, and new stainless steel appliances . The main level offers an open- concept living & dining area with durable neutral tile flooring & access to a covered patio. The kitchen includes green cabinetry, and eat-at bar, & laundry room. Upstairs features 2 spacious bedrooms, a full bath, excellent storage, and a covered balcony. Enjoy the benefits of an end unit w/ large yard, new privacy fence, and separate oversize storage room. Ideal for homeowners or investors seeking a low maintenance property in a convenient location close to restaurants and shopping.

20. 2026-01-30
    listed $169,900 Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Lake Access! Move-in-ready Lake Park condominium conveniently located just minutes form Valdosta, GA and the Florida state line. This updated end-unit condo features new interior paint, New plush carpet, and new stainless steel appliances . The main level offers an open- concept living & dining area with durable neutral tile flooring & access to a covered patio. The kitchen includes green cabinetry, and eat-at bar, & laundry room. Upstairs features 2 spacious bedrooms, a full bath, excellent storage, and a covered balcony. Enjoy the benefits of an end unit w/ large yard, new privacy fence, and separate oversize storage room. Ideal for homeowners or investors seeking a low maintenance property in a convenient location close to restaurants and shopping.

21. 2009-07-31
    soldstatus $83,000
22. 2005-06-30
    soldstatus $254,221
23. 1996-04-26
    soldstatus $45,818

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $438 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,471 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,033/yr (+$86/mo · 235.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$438
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$94
• After-tax cash flow: $2,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lake Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #8632

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,184

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.27%
• Current HPI: 205.6279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+249.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $159,900 SGMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $165,000 SGMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $169,900 SGMLS
• 2009-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $254,221 Public Records
• 1996-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $45,818 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2018): $438 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.