303 19th · Carrizo Springs, TX 78834

$140,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · Manufactured public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1976 0.54 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner Finance available with 20 percent down payment! Spacious home on over half an acre inside city limits, situated on two combined lots totaling approximately 0.54 acres and offering the convenience of all city utilities and services. With approximately 2,640 square feet of living space, this well-maintained home features generous room sizes and a functional split-bedroom floor plan. Inside you'll find a spacious kitchen with ample counter space, a large living/den area, and an oversized dining room that could easily serve as a second living area or entertainment space. The oversized primary bedroom includes a private bath with a large soaker tub, while three additional guest bedrooms and a guest bathroom are located on the opposite end of the home, providing excellent privacy. Outdoor features include a metal two-car carport, front porch, large covered back porch, and a fenced backyard with chain-link fencing, ideal for pets or a safe play area. Heavy-duty metal posts already set in concrete offer the beginning of a future pipe fence. Additional features include a dedicated laundry room, multiple window units for heating and cooling, and a large yard that adds to the overall appeal and potential of this city-limit property.

Key facts

• Over half an acre
• Two combined lots
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OVER HALF AN ACRE
• TWO COMBINED LOTS
• CITY UTILITIES AND SERVICES
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE LIVING DEN AREA
• OVERSIZED DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,342 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Carrizo Springs CISD (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #780 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Dimmit County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Dimmit County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.33%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $52,266
• Equity at exit: $93,251

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $147,178
• Equity at exit: $173,827

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78834

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,587/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-01-24
    listed $140,000 New 1247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1247 chars)

    Owner Finance available with 20 percent down payment! Spacious home on over half an acre inside city limits, situated on two combined lots totaling approximately 0.54 acres and offering the convenience of all city utilities and services. With approximately 2,640 square feet of living space, this well-maintained home features generous room sizes and a functional split-bedroom floor plan. Inside you'll find a spacious kitchen with ample counter space, a large living/den area, and an oversized dining room that could easily serve as a second living area or entertainment space. The oversized primary bedroom includes a private bath with a large soaker tub, while three additional guest bedrooms and a guest bathroom are located on the opposite end of the home, providing excellent privacy. Outdoor features include a metal two-car carport, front porch, large covered back porch, and a fenced backyard with chain-link fencing, ideal for pets or a safe play area. Heavy-duty metal posts already set in concrete offer the beginning of a future pipe fence. Additional features include a dedicated laundry room, multiple window units for heating and cooling, and a large yard that adds to the overall appeal and potential of this city-limit property.

17. 2023-09-14
    soldstatus
18. 2023-05-03
    historical
19. 2022-09-29
    status Back on Market
20. 2022-09-21
    status Pending
21. 2022-09-14
    price $149,900
22. 2022-05-04
    listed $170,000 New
23. 2022-04-30
    historical
24. 2021-10-12
    price $180,000
25. 2021-10-11
    status Back on Market
26. 2021-09-30
    historical
27. 2021-09-01
    price $187,000
28. 2021-06-07
    price $189,000
29. 2021-05-09
    historical
30. 2020-08-27
    listed $198,000 Active
31. 2020-08-08
    listed $198,000 Active
32. 2020-07-10
    historical
33. 2019-10-23
    listed $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$975/yr (+$81/mo · 61.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,587
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,256
• − Management: −$1,256
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$244
• After-tax cash flow: $1,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrizo Springs CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $32,354
• Composite: 17.03/100
• National rank: #9127
• State rank: #780 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carrizo Springs

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1342
• US rank: #23137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrizo Springs, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,204

Population outlook (Dimmit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,089 people
• By 2030: 14,217 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 16,685 · +27.5%
• By 2050: 19,361 · +47.9%
• By 2075: 26,356 · +101.4%
• By 2100: 31,128 · +137.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 87% Two or more races 59% White 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Dimmit

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 48.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.4pp toward R · 2008: 50.7pp · 2024: 3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.3 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+37.2 2012: D+47.3 2008: D+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Current HPI: 127.0655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-24 Listed $140,000 LERA
• 2023-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-03 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-09-29 Relisted — LERA
• 2022-09-21 Pending — LERA
• 2022-09-14 Price Changed $149,900 LERA
• 2022-05-04 Listed $170,000 LERA
• 2022-04-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2021-10-12 Price Changed $180,000 LERA
• 2021-10-11 Relisted — LERA
• 2021-09-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2021-09-01 Price Changed $187,000 LERA
• 2021-06-07 Price Changed $189,000 LERA
• 2021-05-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2020-08-27 Listed $198,000 LERA
• 2020-08-08 Listed $198,000 LERA
• 2020-07-10 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2019-10-23 Listed $200,000 LERA

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,587 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.