1517 W Oak St · Herrin, IL 62948

$109,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 1920 7,250 sqft lot $60/sqft · 18% below area Est $133k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into a space that perfectly blends retro charm with everyday comfort! This 3 bed, 1.5 bath home in Herrin sits on two lots and immediately catches your eye with its inviting curb appeal—oversized windows and a quaint covered front porch that feels straight out of a storybook. Inside, the character shines! From the warm wooden ceiling beams to the unique brick accents, this home has personality you can’t replicate. The layout flows effortlessly into a spacious dining and kitchen area, where you’ll find ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and charming built-in shelving. The living room is very large and filled with natural light, anchored by a cozy wood-burning fi

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Unique brick accents
• Brown picket fence

Tags

• BROWN PICKET FENCE
• QUAINT COVERED FRONT PORCH
• WOODEN CEILING BEAMS
• UNIQUE BRICK ACCENTS
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1920
• Construction: Shingle roof; Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Level lot; Paved road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and living areas; Vinyl flooring in the kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Cable available; Ceiling fans; High-speed internet; One living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 8.5% in Herrin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Herrin CUSD 4 (suburban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #364 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Herrin Middle School (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #318 of 665 statewide, top 48%, 507 students, 0% FRL); Herrin High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #218 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 686 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.20%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,244
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -17.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
417 S 22nd St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,771 (-3%)	1mo	$150,000	$85	72
820 S 20th St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,948 (+7%)	0mo	$77,500	$40	58
308 N 20th St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,848 (+1%)	4mo	$57,400	$31	56
601 N 33rd St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,736 (-5%)	7mo	$254,000	$146	53
508 S 24th St	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,719 (-6%)	22mo	$150,000	$87	49
1316 W Stotlar St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-13%)	14mo	$154,000	$97	39
500 S 19th St	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,568 (-14%)	6mo	$28,000	$18	36
208 N 20th St	0.65mi	3/2.0	2,017 (+11%)	21mo	$165,000	$82	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $16,788
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $59,079
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62948

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $576/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $848

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Under Contract 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Under Contract 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Under Contract 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Under Contract 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Under Contract 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Under Contract 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Under Contract 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Under Contract 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Under Contract 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Under Contract 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Under Contract 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Under Contract 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Under Contract 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Under Contract 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Under Contract 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-10
    historical Under Contract 1238-char remark
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $109,900 Active 1238-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,535 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$960/yr (+$80/mo · 166.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$576
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $5,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,202
• After-tax cash flow: $5,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herrin CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1718810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $38,824
• Composite: 20.56/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #364 of 620 in IL

Livability — Herrin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #13670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herrin, IL
• City population: 12,728
• Population (ZIP): 12,728

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.82%
• Current HPI: 131.1617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $109,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $576 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.