16939 Athens Ln · Summerdale, AL 36580

$266,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 8,960 sqft lot Est $300k · 11% under $90/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction in Summerdale, AL! Just a short drive to the white sandy beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, and minutes from Foley’s best shopping and dining, Tanger Outlets, and the OWA water park and entertainment district. Introducing the Mays floorplan! This 1,569 sq. ft. , single-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a low-maintenance layout designed for modern lifestyles. Two secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, surrounding a full bathroom. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, dining room, and family room for seamless everyday transitions and multitasking. The kitchen showcases 42" cabinets, sleek quartz countertops throughout, and stain

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New construction
• 42 inch cabinets

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SHORT DRIVE TO BEACHES
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• 42 INCH CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $266,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 16939 Athens Ln, Summerdale, AL 36580

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built home (Mays plan); Living area approximately 1,569

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $267k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-422 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#384 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,525 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.77%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,679
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
272 Lakefront Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-0%)	5mo	$260,000	$166	78
206 Lakefront Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-2%)	9mo	$324,900	$212	72
262 Lakefront Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-2%)	8mo	$252,500	$164	69
115 Marsh Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-2%)	21mo	$275,000	$179	64
122 Marsh Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-14%)	2mo	$309,000	$229	58
224 Lakefront Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,517 (-3%)	24mo	$290,000	$191	52
466 Shriver Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+11%)	6mo	$279,990	$161	42
241 Lakefront Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,362 (-13%)	23mo	$273,000	$200	35
228 Lakefront Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-15%)	19mo	$284,500	$213	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $82,731
• Equity at exit: $202,354

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $260,157
• Equity at exit: $401,209

Cash invested: $74,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36580

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,400
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$334 /mo · $4,005/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,450

Max offer price $205,917

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-238	-5% $-330	+0% $-422	+5% $-514	+10% $-607
Rent	-10% $-573	-5% $-498	+0% $-422	+5% $-346	+10% $-271
Rate	-1.0pp $-288	-0.5pp $-354	base $-422	+0.5pp $-491	+1.0pp $-562

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,748
• Closing costs: $8,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $266,990 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $266,990 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $266,990 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $266,990 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $266,990 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $266,990 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   remarks 688-char remark
8. 2026-06-14
   days on marketlisting id $266,990 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $266,990 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $266,990 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $266,990 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $266,990 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 495-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $266,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,956
• − Property taxes: −$4,005
• − Insurance: −$1,335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$7,767
• Taxable loss: −$9,837
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,361
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Summerdale

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #384
• US rank: #21872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Summerdale, AL
• City population: 7,025
• Population (ZIP): 7,025

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.97%
• Current HPI: 288.8697
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B