2794 S Camino Selva · Green Valley, AZ 85622

$205,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 929 sqft · Condo public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1979 $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming townhome with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a bonus room with its own mini split. This lovely home has a mountain view from the front walled in patio. Both bedrooms have newer luxury vinyl plank floors and mirrored closet doors. All bedrooms except the front bedroom are equipped with security/solar screens for added privacy and energy efficiency. This home also has a newer roof, newer exterior paint, light fixtures and newer flooring in bedrooms. A fabulous townhome with a superb location literally 2 minutes from the GVR center.

Key facts

• Walled in patio
• Newer flooring
• Newer roof

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEW
• WALLED IN PATIO
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER EXTERIOR PAINT
• LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEWER FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 30' x 95'; Lot size includes 2,788 sq. ft. (provided for reference); Zoned Green Valley - TR
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (represents $43 paid annually); HOA maintains common areas and streets

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Covered carport (1 space) with storage
• Security: Wrought iron security door; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water from company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Single-story; Faces south
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Stucco finish; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Paver patio/porch; Decorative gravel landscaping; North/South exposure; Paved street

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Mini-split heating; Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Skylights; Smoke detectors; Wrought iron security door; Other bath modification (accessibility)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $337 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $205k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,949 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,694
• Equity at exit: $61,217

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $40,041
• Equity at exit: $74,950

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85622

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $985/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $170	+0% $112	+5% $54	+10% $-4
Rent	-10% $-27	-5% $42	+0% $112	+5% $182	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $164	base $112	+0.5pp $59	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1430 W Camino Lucientes Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,500	$1.46	24d	1	0.06mi
2807 S Calle Trafalgar Unit NA Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	966	$1,650	$1.71	24d	1	0.21mi
1098 W Camino Sagasta Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,600	$2.33	24d	1	0.32mi
1400 Placita Apache Unit X Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	987	$1,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.35mi
1230 W Camino del Pato Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$3,200	$3.02	18d	1	0.79mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $205,000
16. 2026-04-14
    price $210,000
17. 2026-03-28
    price $212,000
18. 2026-03-10
    price $214,000
19. 2026-01-02
    listed $219,000 Active
20. 1984-10-25
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,353 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$368/yr (+$31/mo · 37.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$985
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$2,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$513
• After-tax cash flow: $1,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• City population: 25,381
• Population (ZIP): 6,345

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 225.8384
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+279.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $205,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $210,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $212,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $214,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-02 Listed $219,000 MLSSAZ
• 1984-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $985 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.