806 Hemlock St · Celina, OH 45822

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1955 6,534 sqft lot Est $162k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home, nestled in a peaceful and friendly neighborhood. Located within walking distance to schools, this home is ideal for families or anyone seeking a prime spot with access to amenities. The updated kitchen is chef's delight, while the upstairs boasts brand-new carpeting & fresh paint. The fully updated interior blends modern touches with classic charm, offering a move-in-ready experience for its next owners. Outside, you'll find two spacious storage units, perfect for your extra belongings. Don't miss this opportunity to own a perfect blend of comfort and convenience! Schedule your showing today and make this house your home

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Updated kitchen
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• METAL ROOF
• SPACIOUS STORAGE UNITS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Supplied water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single family residence; House; Built in 1955; Lot dimensions approx. 58 x 110
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Shed(s); Residential lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (12 x 11); Bedroom 2 (11 x 10); Bedroom 3 (15 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Attic; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer location not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($88/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#397 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Celina City (town): math 64% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #299 of 656 in OH (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 92 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $155,000 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
836 Hemlock St	0.14mi	3/1.0	936 (-10%)	7mo	$164,000	$175	71
120 E Blake St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+2%)	2mo	$160,000	$152	68
834 Hemlock St	0.13mi	3/1.0	936 (-10%)	13mo	$177,000	$189	66
619 N Sugar St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-1%)	7mo	$128,500	$125	61
906 Greenbriar Ct	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,026 (-1%)	18mo	$160,000	$156	59
627 N Sugar St	0.67mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,044 (+0%)	6mo	$135,000	$129	56
1001 N Sugar St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,106 (+6%)	2mo	$169,900	$154	53
1006 Meadowview Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,134 (+9%)	11mo	$240,900	$212	52
209 E Forest St	0.41mi	3/1.0	936 (-10%)	15mo	$157,500	$168	52
313 E Fulton St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,118 (+8%)	16mo	$85,000	$76	46
7261 State Route 197	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,105 (+6%)	13mo	$195,900	$177	39
601 E Market St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	908 (-13%)	15mo	$140,000	$154	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,338
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-25,956
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45822

• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,706/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,541

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2006 Legacy LN Unit 2010-303 Celina, OH	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,550	$1.54	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 695-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $189,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,706 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,334 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$628/yr (+$52/mo · 36.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,706
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$3,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$766
• After-tax cash flow: $855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina City
• NCES district ID: 3910030
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,168
• Composite: 50.44/100
• National rank: #1864
• State rank: #299 of 656 in OH

Livability — Celina

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #6556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, OH
• County: Mercer · 42,068 people
• Population (ZIP): 20,170
• Household income: $72,106
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 15.9

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,163 people
• By 2030: 39,367 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 37,406 · -6.9%
• By 2050: 34,917 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 28,969 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 21,338 · -46.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.3% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.9 2016: R+65.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.25%
• Current HPI: 204.0486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+153.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $189,900 WRIST
• 2025-02-24 Sold (MLS) $172,000 WRIST
• 2025-02-10 Pending — WRIST
• 2025-01-25 Contingent — WRIST
• 2024-12-02 Listed $181,500 WRIST
• 2016-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-05 Sold (MLS) $68,000 WRIST
• 2016-02-22 Listed $74,900 WRIST

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,706 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.