40776 Mostyn Lake Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · Land · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 5,600 sqft lot $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Thoughtful single-story design and connected gathering spaces make this home feel warm and inviting! Bright, welcoming, and effortlessly livable, this thoughtfully designed single-story home is centered around comfort, connection, and everyday ease. From the inviting front porch to the open living spaces and covered patio, every element is designed to support both relaxed routines and easy entertaining. The home opens into a spacious great room that flows naturally into the casual dining area and kitchen, creating a seamless environment where gathering feels natural. In the kitchen, bright white cabinetry, granite countertops, a generous island, and convenient pantry storage combine timeless style with everyday functionality, creating a space designed for both cooking and connection. Vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas enhances the home's clean, cohesive look with a modern and durable finish. Tucked privately at the rear of the home, the primary suite offers a quiet retreat with a well-appointed bath and a spacious walk-in closet designed to keep mornings simple and organized. Secondary bedrooms are positioned near the front of the home, providing flexibility for guests, hobbies, or additional living space, while a centrally located laundry room and thoughtful storage throughout make daily routines feel effortless.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Modern cabinetry
• Top-rated schools

Tags

• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• CONVENIENT TECH SPACE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MODERN CABINETRY
• GORGEOUS GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: LEAD Association Management; Annual association fee of $800

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); South-facing
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15x14); Bedroom on the first floor (10x10); Bedroom on the first floor (10x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated doors; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen and family room combined; Kitchen and dining combined; Living and dining room; Pantry; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $262,238.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-984/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $206,166 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.34%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,238
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -2.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $132,151
• Equity at exit: $236,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $383,382
• Equity at exit: $509,470

Cash invested: $73,427 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,062 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,375
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,911/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $247,746

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $-8	+0% $-82	+5% $-156	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-163	+0% $-82	+5% $-1	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-15	base $-82	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,559
• Closing costs: $7,867
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40700 Pessi Rd Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,100	$1.69	45d	1	0.35mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,784	$1.58	0d	1	1.38mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 4292 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,824	$1.61	12d	1	1.38mi
4225 Magnolia Village Dr Magnolia, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,992	$2.00	0d	31	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,990 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,990 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,990 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,990 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    listed $264,990 Active 1354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1354 chars)

    Thoughtful single-story design and connected gathering spaces make this home feel warm and inviting! Bright, welcoming, and effortlessly livable, this thoughtfully designed single-story home is centered around comfort, connection, and everyday ease. From the inviting front porch to the open living spaces and covered patio, every element is designed to support both relaxed routines and easy entertaining. The home opens into a spacious great room that flows naturally into the casual dining area and kitchen, creating a seamless environment where gathering feels natural. In the kitchen, bright white cabinetry, granite countertops, a generous island, and convenient pantry storage combine timeless style with everyday functionality, creating a space designed for both cooking and connection. Vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas enhances the home's clean, cohesive look with a modern and durable finish. Tucked privately at the rear of the home, the primary suite offers a quiet retreat with a well-appointed bath and a spacious walk-in closet designed to keep mornings simple and organized. Secondary bedrooms are positioned near the front of the home, providing flexibility for guests, hobbies, or additional living space, while a centrally located laundry room and thoughtful storage throughout make daily routines feel effortless.

16. 2026-05-15
    listed $264,990 Active 987-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,911 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,755/yr (+$230/mo · 144.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,689
• − Property taxes: −$1,911
• − Insurance: −$1,311
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$7,629
• Taxable loss: −$5,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,335
• After-tax cash flow: $351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $254,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $264,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Listed $264,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,911 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.