9 Estes Dr · Bella Vista, AR 72715

$367,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,602 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 442 Days on market

Built 1978 2,178 sqft lot Est $515k · 29% under $130/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

At $141 a sq. ft. , you won't find a nicer townhome in Bella Vista! Throw in a new HVAC system, numerous upgrades, adjacent to beautiful Lake Windsor and this is one of the greatest values in town! Centrally located with convenient access to trails, golf, tennis, BV Rec Center, pools, shopping and dining. Open floor plan with main level primary bed/bath, wood floors, fireplace and home library. 2 sunrooms with wooded views and private deck are perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Low maintenance, permanent siding, newer architectural roof (2020) and Pella double hung windows provide peace of mind. Grounds maintenance services provided by the Bella Vista Townhouse Assn. including mowing, we

Key facts

• Access to golf
• Access to trails
• Access to tennis

Tags

• LAKE ADJACENT
• CENTRAL BELLA VISTA LOCATION
• ACCESS TO TRAILS
• ACCESS TO GOLF
• ACCESS TO TENNIS
• ACCESS TO BV REC CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Bella Vista POA) with a monthly fee; Community features include biking, clubhouse, dock, fitness center, golf, playground, park, pool, recreation area, sauna, tennis courts, lake access, shopping, and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Asphalt driveway; 1 covered space
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Electricity available; Propane available; Cable available
• Home design: Two-story home; Residential zoning; Has view
• Construction: Block foundation; Block and concrete construction with vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Built 25+ years ago
• Exterior features: Deck; Landscaped lot; Sloped lot; Wooded; Close to clubhouse; Public paved road frontage; Lake Windsor view; Community pool and spa access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Plumbed for ice maker; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms include library, office and sunroom as room types
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric heat pump); Central air (electric heat pump)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s); Central vacuum; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Sunroom; Double pane vinyl windows with blinds; Wood burning stove
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $368k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $988 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $368k).
• Recommended offer: $323k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.6% in Bella Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#111 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bentonville School District (urban): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #3 of 238 in AR (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 827 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,321/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 107% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $103k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 442 days — a 12% lower offer ($323k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $368k implies a 359% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $323,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 442 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.53%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $515,196
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Pembroke Ln	0.26mi	3/3.0	2,784 (+7%)	4mo	$675,000	$242	69
12 Martham Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,495 (-4%)	11mo	$565,000	$226	60
8 Abingdon Ln	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,460 (-6%)	14mo	$549,800	$223	59
5 Norman Cir	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,577 (-1%)	13mo	$408,000	$158	58
84 Churchill Dr	0.46mi	3/3.5	2,524 (-3%)	16mo	$535,000	$212	54
23 Brighstone Ln	0.68mi	3/3.0	2,764 (+6%)	3mo	$527,500	$191	51
64 Mayfair Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,935 (+13%)	4mo	$305,000	$104	45
57 Dunsford Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,880 (+11%)	11mo	$750,000	$260	42
6 Neffwood Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,842 (+9%)	4mo	$505,000	$178	39
44 Kensington Dr	0.46mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-13%)	14mo	$447,000	$198	38
1 Leyburn Ln	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,974 (+14%)	8mo	$440,000	$148	38
1 Redgrave Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5	2,383 (-8%)	20mo	$362,550	$152	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $3,396
• Equity at exit: $54,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $83,997
• Equity at exit: $31,775

Cash invested: $102,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72715

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 827
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,927
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,579/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$907
• Net cashflow: $988

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,070

Max offer price $367,500

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,875
• Closing costs: $11,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 Portsmouth Dr Unit 1221917P Bella Vista, AR	4.0	3.5	3186	$6,285	$1.97	13d	1	0.65mi
9 N Cerney Ln Unit 1297034P Bella Vista, AR	3.0	3.0	2497	$2,340	$0.94	14d	1	0.98mi
15 Baywater Ln Unit 1221842P Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1915	$5,167	$2.70	21d	1	1.01mi
5 Wreston Ln Bella Vista, AR	3.0	3.0	2290	$2,000	$0.87	13d	1	1.14mi
6 Erith Ln Unit 1512836P Bella Vista, AR	4.0	2.0	2077	$5,027	$2.42	13d	1	1.31mi
1 Yarty Ln Bella Vista, AR	2.0	2.0	1815	$2,300	$1.27	23d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $367,500 Active 442 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $367,500 Active 441 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $367,500 Active 439 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $367,500 Active 437 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $367,500 Active 434 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $367,500 Active 433 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $367,500 Active 432 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $367,500 Active 431 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $367,500 Active 428 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $367,500 Active 427 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $367,500 Active 426 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $367,500 Active 425 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $367,500 Active 424 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $367,500 Active 423 DOM
15. 2026-01-07
    status Active
16. 2026-01-07
    price $367,500
17. 2026-01-05
    historical
18. 2026-01-05
    status Active
19. 2026-01-01
    historical
20. 2025-03-27
    listed $372,500 Active
21. 2024-12-12
    price $372,500
22. 2024-11-29
    price $374,900
23. 2024-08-22
    price $372,500
24. 1995-12-14
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,579 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,579 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,586
• − Property taxes: −$2,579
• − Insurance: −$1,838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,148
• − Management: −$4,148
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$10,691
• Taxable income: $6,303
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,513
• After-tax cash flow: $10,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bentonville School District
• NCES district ID: 0503060
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,721
• Composite: 51.85/100
• National rank: #1661
• State rank: #3 of 238 in AR

Livability — Bella Vista

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #11129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bella Vista, AR
• County: Benton County · 259,241 people
• City population: 31,638
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 17,288
• Household income: $82,447
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 107.0

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.53%
• Current HPI: 304.946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+359.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Relisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $367,500 NWARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Delisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Relisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Delisted — NWARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $372,500 NWARMLS
• 2024-12-12 Price Changed $372,500 NWARMLS
• 2024-11-29 Price Changed $374,900 NWARMLS
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $372,500 NWARMLS
• 1995-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,579 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.