4 Courtly Cir · Owego, NY 13827

$275,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1976 0.80 ac lot $112/sqft · 26% below area Est $370k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very Spacious home on a corner lot minutes from downtown Historic Owego. This home offers 4 large bedrooms, Primary bedroom has a walk in closet and private bathroom. Updated common bathroom. Main level has huge living room with gleaming wood floors, formal dining room, Kitchen with lots of cabinet and counter space with table area. Sliders off kitchen to rear deck. The walk out lower level has a big family room with fireplace, another updated full bath, closets for storage and a huge laundry/storage room. Oversized 2 car attached garage, paved driveway and a large corner lot with mix of open yard and trees offering privacy. This house is completely move in ready!

Key facts

• Gleaming wood floors
• Huge living room
• Walk in closet

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WALK IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• UPDATED COMMON BATHROOM
• HUGE LIVING ROOM
• GLEAMING WOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-897 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (41.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (39.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (41.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 5.3% in Owego — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#214 in NY, #3,289 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Owego-Apalachin Central School District (town): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #204 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Owego Elementary School (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 486 students, 53% FRL); Owego-Apalachin Middle School (math 36% / reading 57%, grade D+, #330 of 729 statewide, top 46%, 443 students, 45% FRL); Owego Free Academy (math 98% / reading 75%, grade A, #342 of 1,100 statewide, top 31%, 606 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $275k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $159,647 (41.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.99%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,452
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -25.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 King Cir N	0.26mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,587 (+5%)	4mo	$450,000	$174	69
1 Deerfield Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,578 (+5%)	19mo	$280,000	$109	66
15 South Sunnyside Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,128 (-14%)	13mo	$318,000	$149	54
14 Courtly Cir	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,820 (+14%)	24mo	$399,000	$141	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $58,250
• Equity at exit: $210,947

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $212,003
• Equity at exit: $420,670

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13827

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$665 /mo · $7,982/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-897

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,813

Max offer price $159,647

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-742	-5% $-820	+0% $-897	+5% $-975	+10% $-1,053
Rent	-10% $-1,030	-5% $-964	+0% $-897	+5% $-831	+10% $-765
Rate	-1.0pp $-759	-0.5pp $-827	base $-897	+0.5pp $-969	+1.0pp $-1,041

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Very Spacious home on a corner lot minutes from downtown Historic Owego. This home offers 4 large bedrooms, Primary bedroom has a walk in closet and private bathroom. Updated common bathroom. Main level has huge living room with gleaming wood floors, formal dining room, Kitchen with lots of cabinet and counter space with table area. Sliders off kitchen to rear deck. The walk out lower level has a big family room with fireplace, another updated full bath, closets for storage and a huge laundry/storage room. Oversized 2 car attached garage, paved driveway and a large corner lot with mix of open yard and trees offering privacy. This house is completely move in ready!

2. 2026-04-19
   price $275,000 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Very Spacious home on a corner lot minutes from downtown Historic Owego. This home offers 4 large bedrooms, Primary bedroom has a walk in closet and private bathroom. Updated common bathroom. Main level has huge living room with gleaming wood floors, formal dining room, Kitchen with lots of cabinet and counter space with table area. Sliders off kitchen to rear deck. The walk out lower level has a big family room with fireplace, another updated full bath, closets for storage and a huge laundry/storage room. Oversized 2 car attached garage, paved driveway and a large corner lot with mix of open yard and trees offering privacy. This house is completely move in ready!

3. 2026-02-27
   price $286,900 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Very Spacious home on a corner lot minutes from downtown Historic Owego. This home offers 4 large bedrooms, Primary bedroom has a walk in closet and private bathroom. Updated common bathroom. Main level has huge living room with gleaming wood floors, formal dining room, Kitchen with lots of cabinet and counter space with table area. Sliders off kitchen to rear deck. The walk out lower level has a big family room with fireplace, another updated full bath, closets for storage and a huge laundry/storage room. Oversized 2 car attached garage, paved driveway and a large corner lot with mix of open yard and trees offering privacy. This house is completely move in ready!

4. 2026-01-10
   listed $289,000 Active 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Very Spacious home on a corner lot minutes from downtown Historic Owego. This home offers 4 large bedrooms, Primary bedroom has a walk in closet and private bathroom. Updated common bathroom. Main level has huge living room with gleaming wood floors, formal dining room, Kitchen with lots of cabinet and counter space with table area. Sliders off kitchen to rear deck. The walk out lower level has a big family room with fireplace, another updated full bath, closets for storage and a huge laundry/storage room. Oversized 2 car attached garage, paved driveway and a large corner lot with mix of open yard and trees offering privacy. This house is completely move in ready!

5. 2020-07-17
   soldstatus $85,000
6. 2020-06-26
   soldstatus $85,000
7. 2020-04-08
   listed $105,000
8. 2019-12-28
   listed $105,000
9. 2019-09-10
   listed $112,500
10. 2019-06-10
    listed $114,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,982 · $665/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,982 · $665/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$7,982
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$15,862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,807
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Owego-Apalachin Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622170
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $57,425
• Composite: 53.45/100
• National rank: #1464
• State rank: #204 of 590 in NY

Livability — Owego

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #3289

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,713

Population outlook (Tioga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,155 people
• By 2030: 42,801 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 37,960 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 33,071 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 24,144 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 16,545 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tioga

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.9) · D 38.6% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: -22.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.9 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.11%
• Current HPI: 259.9605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+139.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — GBAOR
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $275,000 GBAOR
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $286,900 GBAOR
• 2026-01-10 Listed $289,000 GBAOR
• 2020-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-26 Sold (MLS) $85,000 GBAOR
• 2020-04-08 Listed $105,000 GBAOR
• 2019-12-28 Listed $105,000 GBAOR
• 2019-09-10 Listed $112,500 GBAOR
• 2019-06-10 Listed $114,900 GBAOR

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,982 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.