319 W Mesa Dr · Kaibab Estates West, AZ 86046

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 316 Days on market

Built 1994 $177/sqft · 8% below area Est $272k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Rare Opportunity, Site Built Home on 2.48 Acres! * Discover a truly special property that s full of heart and history. This custom built 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sits on 2.48 acres of usable land, a perfect blend of comfort, space, and privacy. Lovingly maintained, it s now ready for its next chapter and a new owner to create lasting memories. Home features include * Spacious floorplan with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms * Two additional rooms with concrete flooring, ideal for storage, a workshop, or future expansion * Central heat and air conditioning for year round comfort * All electric setup plus a wood burning stove * 220V power, septic system, and a 2,500-gallon fresh water storage tank * Whether you're looking for a full time residence or a private vacation getaway, this home offers the perfect setting. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a convenient location and a peaceful, secluded lifestyle surrounded by nature. This property lies in a region renowned for its natural beauty. Explore the nearby Grand Canyon National Park, a globally celebrated geological wonder, or venture into the Coconino National Forest, where the landscapes range from the iconic Red Rocks of Sedona to lush pine forests and alpine meadows. A true gem!! Don t miss your chance to own a piece of Arizona s scenic countryside!

Key facts

• 2.48 acres
• Custom built
• 220v power

Tags

• 2.48 ACRES
• CUSTOM BUILT
• CONCRETE FLOORING
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• 220V POWER
• SEPTIC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.6% in Kaibab Estates West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471) (rural): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #58 of 501 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ash Fork Elementary School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #339 of 1,109 statewide, top 32%, 119 students, 79% FRL); Ash Fork Middle School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C+, #21 of 218 statewide, top 9%, 74 students, 77% FRL); Ash Fork High School (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D, #38 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 100 students, 75% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 65% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 678 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 316 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $250k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $151,404 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 316 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.12%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,913
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -8.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
588 W Mesa Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,333 (-5%)	10mo	$220,000	$165	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $116,984
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $359,201
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86046

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 678
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,514 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $957/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,892

Max offer price $197,208

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-157	-5% $-228	+0% $-298	+5% $-369	+10% $-440
Rent	-10% $-418	-5% $-358	+0% $-298	+5% $-238	+10% $-179
Rate	-1.0pp $-172	-0.5pp $-235	base $-298	+0.5pp $-363	+1.0pp $-429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 316 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,900 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 312 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 311 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 310 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,900 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 304 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 303 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 298 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 297 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 296 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 295 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 294 DOM
18. 2025-08-09
    listed $249,900 Active 1328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1328 chars)

    * Rare Opportunity, Site Built Home on 2.48 Acres! * Discover a truly special property that s full of heart and history. This custom built 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sits on 2.48 acres of usable land, a perfect blend of comfort, space, and privacy. Lovingly maintained, it s now ready for its next chapter and a new owner to create lasting memories. Home features include * Spacious floorplan with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms * Two additional rooms with concrete flooring, ideal for storage, a workshop, or future expansion * Central heat and air conditioning for year round comfort * All electric setup plus a wood burning stove * 220V power, septic system, and a 2,500-gallon fresh water storage tank * Whether you're looking for a full time residence or a private vacation getaway, this home offers the perfect setting. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a convenient location and a peaceful, secluded lifestyle surrounded by nature. This property lies in a region renowned for its natural beauty. Explore the nearby Grand Canyon National Park, a globally celebrated geological wonder, or venture into the Coconino National Forest, where the landscapes range from the iconic Red Rocks of Sedona to lush pine forests and alpine meadows. A true gem!! Don t miss your chance to own a piece of Arizona s scenic countryside!

19. 2020-01-09
    soldstatus $74,000
20. 2014-03-06
    soldstatus $42,200 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    GET AWAY FROM IT ALL HERE! CHARMING SITE BUILT HOME ON ON 2.48 ACRES. INCLUDES 4 BEDROOMS,2 BATHS.LARGE OPEN KITCHEN AND LIVING ROOM AREA . APPLIANCES INCLUDE RANGE,MICROWAVE AND REFRIGERATOR. LARGE ATTACHED WORKSHOP.SOLD AS ISCASH ONLY

21. 2007-04-27
    soldstatus $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $957 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$692/yr (+$58/mo · 72.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$957
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,453
• − Management: −$1,453
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$8,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,971
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471)
• NCES district ID: 0400910
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $30,345
• Composite: 54.75/100
• National rank: #2833
• State rank: #58 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kaibab Estates West

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kaibab Estates West, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,669

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.78%
• Current HPI: 474.3252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+61.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-09 Listed $249,900 WARDEX
• 2020-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-06 Sold (MLS) $42,200 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $957 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.