33 Sherwood Ln · Springs, NY 11937

$1,399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,682 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 1978 0.43 ac lot Est $1514k · 8% under $29/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here's the story. .. of a lovely lady. .. This "lovely lady" custom built in the late 70's by the the current owner is on the market for the first time! Set on a quiet street in desirable Clearwater Beach Association in EH Springs, this classic mid-century ranch is a rare opportunity to restore or reimagine a timeless Hamptons retreat. The single-level home spans nearly 1,700 square feet on the main floor, with an equal sized full lower level featuring 8-foot ceilings offering potential to nearly double the living space. The heart of the home is a sunlit great room with vaulted ceilings anchored by a wood-burning fireplace, evoking the warm, inviting character of the era. Clean ar

Key facts

• Mid-century ranch
• Custom built
• Open flow

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT
• MID-CENTURY RANCH
• SUNLIT GREAT ROOM
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OPEN FLOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($89k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.40M).
• Recommended offer: $1.36M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,390/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $392k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.36M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,357,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.83%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,513,800
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Sherwood Ln	0.10mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,750 (+4%)	9mo	$1,575,000	$900	70
104 Pembroke Dr	0.49mi	3/3.0	1,697 (+1%)	14mo	$1,525,000	$899	60
234 Norfolk Dr	0.29mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,886 (+12%)	4mo	$1,950,000	$1,034	50
16 Lion Head Rock Rd	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,600 (-5%)	10mo	$1,850,000	$1,156	49
18 Norfolk Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-11%)	0mo	$1,180,000	$787	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $355,463
• Equity at exit: $208,730

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $1,410,149
• Equity at exit: $121,038

Cash invested: $391,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,341
• Tax from tax record: −$699 /mo · $8,387/yr
• Insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,282
• Net cashflow: $7,456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,952

Max offer price $1,399,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $349,975
• Closing costs: $41,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
85 Camberly Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	1700	$40,000	$23.53	24d	1	0.21mi
1181 Springs Fireplace Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$75,000	$46.88	43d	1	0.31mi
12 Underwood Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$30,000	$18.75	18d	1	0.45mi
197 Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1700	$20,000	$11.76	43d	1	0.58mi
135 Pembroke Dr East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$30,000	$15.00	24d	1	0.63mi
19 Pond Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$85,000	$56.67	43d	1	1.11mi
12 Maidstone Park Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.5	1800	$75,000	$41.67	43d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-04
   listed $1,399,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,387 · $699/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $16,023 · $1,335/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,636/yr (+$636/mo · 91.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $244,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,416
• − Property taxes: −$8,387
• − Insurance: −$7,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,575
• − Management: −$19,575
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$40,724
• Taxable income: $70,659
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,958
• After-tax cash flow: $72,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Listed $1,399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,387 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.