167 Blue Sky Ln · Carter, TX 76082

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2000 1.00 ac lot Est $210k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is priced to sell. Nice open floor plan with split bedrooms. The living and kitchen are open. This home just needs some tlc, but at this price you could have a wonderful home. There is plenty of room to roam witrh an acre.

Key facts

• Acre of land
• Well and septic tank
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• ACRE OF LAND
• WELL AND SEPTIC TANK
• SEPARATE UTILITY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.5% in Carter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Weatherford ISD (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #321 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Seguin El (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 599 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 42% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 519 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.60%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,112
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
167 Blue Sky Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$149,000	$95	100
135 Harvest Moon Ct	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,624 (+4%)	7mo	$220,000	$135	81
140 Draper Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	12mo	$209,900	$134	78
105 Lone Hill Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	8mo	$185,500	$121	78
172 Blue Sky Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	14mo	$260,000	$179	73
125 Draper Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	19mo	$196,000	$146	50
100 Lazy Meadow Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	9mo	$175,000	$130	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,598
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $34,694
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76082

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Active inventory: 519
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,776/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $149,000
3. 2026-03-18
   status Active
4. 2026-03-13
   historical Active Option Contract
5. 2026-03-05
   listed $179,900 Active
6. 2025-05-05
   historical $1,000
7. 2025-04-25
   price $1,000
8. 2025-04-09
   price $1,075
9. 2025-03-21
   listed $1,175
10. 2025-03-21
    historical $1,175
11. 2025-03-19
    listed $1,175
12. 2012-10-19
    soldstatus Closed 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    This home is priced to sell. Nice open floor plan with split bedrooms. The living and kitchen are open. This home just needs some tlc, but at this price you could have a wonderful home. There is plenty of room to roam witrh an acre.

13. 2012-09-26
    status Pending 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    This home is priced to sell. Nice open floor plan with split bedrooms. The living and kitchen are open. This home just needs some tlc, but at this price you could have a wonderful home. There is plenty of room to roam witrh an acre.

14. 2012-09-25
    price $24,660 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    This home is priced to sell. Nice open floor plan with split bedrooms. The living and kitchen are open. This home just needs some tlc, but at this price you could have a wonderful home. There is plenty of room to roam witrh an acre.

15. 2012-08-08
    listed $27,400 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    This home is priced to sell. Nice open floor plan with split bedrooms. The living and kitchen are open. This home just needs some tlc, but at this price you could have a wonderful home. There is plenty of room to roam witrh an acre.

16. 2005-05-02
    soldstatus
17. 2004-06-22
    soldstatus
18. 2004-06-15
    soldstatus 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    FOR MORE INFO CALL JOLEEN 817-249-3256 OR JOLEEN@FLASH. NET SPECIAL ADDENDUMS REQUIRED. PROOF OF FUNDS W/ CONTRACT OR PRE-APPROVAL LETTER FROM BANK. BUYER NEEDS TO VERIFY SCHOOLS, MEASUREMENTS, TAXES, ETC. AGENT MAKES NO REPRESENTATION AS TO VALIDITY OF THE INFORMATION.

19. 2004-05-04
    historical 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    FOR MORE INFO CALL JOLEEN 817-249-3256 OR JOLEEN@FLASH. NET SPECIAL ADDENDUMS REQUIRED. PROOF OF FUNDS W/ CONTRACT OR PRE-APPROVAL LETTER FROM BANK. BUYER NEEDS TO VERIFY SCHOOLS, MEASUREMENTS, TAXES, ETC. AGENT MAKES NO REPRESENTATION AS TO VALIDITY OF THE INFORMATION.

20. 2004-02-09
    listed $39,750 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    FOR MORE INFO CALL JOLEEN 817-249-3256 OR JOLEEN@FLASH. NET SPECIAL ADDENDUMS REQUIRED. PROOF OF FUNDS W/ CONTRACT OR PRE-APPROVAL LETTER FROM BANK. BUYER NEEDS TO VERIFY SCHOOLS, MEASUREMENTS, TAXES, ETC. AGENT MAKES NO REPRESENTATION AS TO VALIDITY OF THE INFORMATION.

21. 2000-09-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,776 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,776 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,776
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,658
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$638
• After-tax cash flow: $4,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weatherford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844800
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,087
• Composite: 36.4/100
• National rank: #4679
• State rank: #321 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carter, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,880
• Household income: $92,485
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 333.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.65%
• Current HPI: 262.1991
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+274.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2025-05-05 Rental Removed $1,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $1,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $1,075 NTREIS
• 2025-03-21 Listed for Rent $1,175 NTREIS
• 2025-03-21 Rental Removed $1,175 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-03-19 Listed for Rent $1,175 SHOWMOJO
• 2012-10-19 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2012-09-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2012-09-25 Price Changed $24,660 NTREIS
• 2012-08-08 Listed $27,400 NTREIS
• 2005-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-06-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2004-05-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2004-02-09 Listed $39,750 NTREIS
• 2000-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,776 · -8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.