26147 Venus Trap Trl · Katy, TX 77493

$314,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,952 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $338k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You'll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs! Options include: Fourth bedroom in lieu of loft Covered patio off great room

Key facts

• Dining area
• Open layout
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-737/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $267,699 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $337,696
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26222 Venus Trap Trl	0.00mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (+3%)	1mo	$339,900	$169	87
26247 Venus Trap Trl	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,678 (-14%)	1mo	$289,900	$173	76
25307 Ashbourne Ct	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,780 (-9%)	13mo	$299,995	$169	51
3921 Eula Morgan Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,061 (+6%)	8mo	$550,000	$267	48
25235 Benroe St	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,124 (+9%)	21mo	$347,000	$163	45
25302 Benroe St	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,693 (-13%)	19mo	$299,995	$177	40
4623 Padbury Manor Ct	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,130 (+9%)	9mo	$349,000	$164	36
4614 Dunston Manor St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-14%)	18mo	$309,995	$185	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-62,742
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-89,823
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,724/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,755

Max offer price $306,018

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $47	+0% $-61	+5% $-170	+10% $-279
Rent	-10% $-273	-5% $-167	+0% $-61	+5% $44	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $19	base $-61	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,024	$1.60	0d	17	0.86mi
5006 Sunway Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2550	$2,500	$0.98	45d	1	0.91mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	0d	25	1.28mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $314,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 565-char remark
4. 2026-06-18
   listed $314,900 Active 24 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$4,724
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,570
• − Management: −$2,570
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$6,114
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,467
• After-tax cash flow: $731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B