579 Lake Cummings Way · Lake Alfred, FL 33850

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2016 8,725 sqft lot $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED! This Beautiful 2016 home located in the gated community of Lake Cummings Estates in Lake Alfred, offers the comforts of 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a completely equipped kitchen with all appliances. The kitchen also boasts a breakfast bar, backsplash, and closet pantry. This home is situated on a corner lot with no rear neighbors. The Master bedroom offers a Bathroom En-suite with dual sinks and walk-in closet. This young home should have no problems tackling insurance hurdles. Don't wait! Make an appointment and view this Ready to Own Home!

Key facts

• Gated community
• No rear neighbors
• Split floor plan

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CORNER LOT
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• MODERN LIGHT FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption on file
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Don Asher); Gated community; HOA dues: $69.75 monthly ($837 annually); Association fee required; Community mailbox; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; South facing; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a residential single family home
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Corner lot; Asphalt road frontage; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-227/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Alfred Elementary School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 821 students, 49% FRL); Jere L. Stambaugh Middle (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,127 students, 65% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 280 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,430/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 431% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,021 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-46,373
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-41,758
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33850

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,485/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,454

Max offer price $275,655

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $60	+0% $-19	+5% $-98	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-211	-5% $-115	+0% $-19	+5% $77	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $52	base $-19	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 S Nekoma Ave Lake Alfred, FL	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,095	$1.03	12d	1	0.48mi
262 Amaryllis Way Lake Alfred, FL	3.0	3.0	2415	$4,000	$1.66	5d	1	1.12mi
505 Interlock St Lake Alfred, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,919	$1.33	4d	1	1.31mi
533 Interlock St Lake Alfred, FL	4.0	3.0	2487	$2,226	$0.90	15d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $279,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-05-29
   listed $279,000 Active
6. 2023-04-05
   soldstatus $295,000
7. 2023-03-31
   soldstatus $295,000 Closed 557-char remark

   Show marketing remark (557 chars)

   REDUCED! This Beautiful 2016 home located in the gated community of Lake Cummings Estates in Lake Alfred, offers the comforts of 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a completely equipped kitchen with all appliances. The kitchen also boasts a breakfast bar, backsplash, and closet pantry. This home is situated on a corner lot with no rear neighbors. The Master bedroom offers a Bathroom En-suite with dual sinks and walk-in closet. This young home should have no problems tackling insurance hurdles. Don't wait! Make an appointment and view this Ready to Own Home!

8. 2023-02-23
   status Pending 557-char remark

   Show marketing remark (557 chars)

   REDUCED! This Beautiful 2016 home located in the gated community of Lake Cummings Estates in Lake Alfred, offers the comforts of 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a completely equipped kitchen with all appliances. The kitchen also boasts a breakfast bar, backsplash, and closet pantry. This home is situated on a corner lot with no rear neighbors. The Master bedroom offers a Bathroom En-suite with dual sinks and walk-in closet. This young home should have no problems tackling insurance hurdles. Don't wait! Make an appointment and view this Ready to Own Home!

9. 2023-02-18
   status Active 557-char remark

   Show marketing remark (557 chars)

   REDUCED! This Beautiful 2016 home located in the gated community of Lake Cummings Estates in Lake Alfred, offers the comforts of 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a completely equipped kitchen with all appliances. The kitchen also boasts a breakfast bar, backsplash, and closet pantry. This home is situated on a corner lot with no rear neighbors. The Master bedroom offers a Bathroom En-suite with dual sinks and walk-in closet. This young home should have no problems tackling insurance hurdles. Don't wait! Make an appointment and view this Ready to Own Home!

10. 2023-02-17
    historical 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    REDUCED! This Beautiful 2016 home located in the gated community of Lake Cummings Estates in Lake Alfred, offers the comforts of 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a completely equipped kitchen with all appliances. The kitchen also boasts a breakfast bar, backsplash, and closet pantry. This home is situated on a corner lot with no rear neighbors. The Master bedroom offers a Bathroom En-suite with dual sinks and walk-in closet. This young home should have no problems tackling insurance hurdles. Don't wait! Make an appointment and view this Ready to Own Home!

11. 2023-01-29
    price $299,900 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    REDUCED! This Beautiful 2016 home located in the gated community of Lake Cummings Estates in Lake Alfred, offers the comforts of 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a completely equipped kitchen with all appliances. The kitchen also boasts a breakfast bar, backsplash, and closet pantry. This home is situated on a corner lot with no rear neighbors. The Master bedroom offers a Bathroom En-suite with dual sinks and walk-in closet. This young home should have no problems tackling insurance hurdles. Don't wait! Make an appointment and view this Ready to Own Home!

12. 2022-12-18
    price $309,900 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    REDUCED! This Beautiful 2016 home located in the gated community of Lake Cummings Estates in Lake Alfred, offers the comforts of 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a completely equipped kitchen with all appliances. The kitchen also boasts a breakfast bar, backsplash, and closet pantry. This home is situated on a corner lot with no rear neighbors. The Master bedroom offers a Bathroom En-suite with dual sinks and walk-in closet. This young home should have no problems tackling insurance hurdles. Don't wait! Make an appointment and view this Ready to Own Home!

13. 2022-10-10
    price $315,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    REDUCED! This Beautiful 2016 home located in the gated community of Lake Cummings Estates in Lake Alfred, offers the comforts of 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a completely equipped kitchen with all appliances. The kitchen also boasts a breakfast bar, backsplash, and closet pantry. This home is situated on a corner lot with no rear neighbors. The Master bedroom offers a Bathroom En-suite with dual sinks and walk-in closet. This young home should have no problems tackling insurance hurdles. Don't wait! Make an appointment and view this Ready to Own Home!

14. 2022-09-09
    price $329,900 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    REDUCED! This Beautiful 2016 home located in the gated community of Lake Cummings Estates in Lake Alfred, offers the comforts of 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a completely equipped kitchen with all appliances. The kitchen also boasts a breakfast bar, backsplash, and closet pantry. This home is situated on a corner lot with no rear neighbors. The Master bedroom offers a Bathroom En-suite with dual sinks and walk-in closet. This young home should have no problems tackling insurance hurdles. Don't wait! Make an appointment and view this Ready to Own Home!

15. 2022-08-18
    listed $335,000 Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    REDUCED! This Beautiful 2016 home located in the gated community of Lake Cummings Estates in Lake Alfred, offers the comforts of 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a completely equipped kitchen with all appliances. The kitchen also boasts a breakfast bar, backsplash, and closet pantry. This home is situated on a corner lot with no rear neighbors. The Master bedroom offers a Bathroom En-suite with dual sinks and walk-in closet. This young home should have no problems tackling insurance hurdles. Don't wait! Make an appointment and view this Ready to Own Home!

16. 2019-07-05
    soldstatus $200,000
17. 2019-07-01
    soldstatus $200,000 Sold 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    NEW LISTING PRICE!!! Are you looking for a corner lot home built in 2016? Welcome to the Lake Cummings Gated Community. This Like-New well maintained Single Family Residence offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and plenty of space for you and your family. When you open the front door you can see the space on the hallway and unique split floor plan. The kitchen shows amaretto color cabinets, dark appliances, back splash and a spacious island for those busy mornings. The master bedroom offers two windows for great natural light and a Big master bathroom with dual sinks, shower and spacious walk-in closet with built ins. With a beautiful back yard and low HOA this could be the one you can call HOME. Schedule your private tour today!!!

18. 2019-05-30
    status Pending 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    NEW LISTING PRICE!!! Are you looking for a corner lot home built in 2016? Welcome to the Lake Cummings Gated Community. This Like-New well maintained Single Family Residence offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and plenty of space for you and your family. When you open the front door you can see the space on the hallway and unique split floor plan. The kitchen shows amaretto color cabinets, dark appliances, back splash and a spacious island for those busy mornings. The master bedroom offers two windows for great natural light and a Big master bathroom with dual sinks, shower and spacious walk-in closet with built ins. With a beautiful back yard and low HOA this could be the one you can call HOME. Schedule your private tour today!!!

19. 2019-04-25
    price $205,000 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    NEW LISTING PRICE!!! Are you looking for a corner lot home built in 2016? Welcome to the Lake Cummings Gated Community. This Like-New well maintained Single Family Residence offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and plenty of space for you and your family. When you open the front door you can see the space on the hallway and unique split floor plan. The kitchen shows amaretto color cabinets, dark appliances, back splash and a spacious island for those busy mornings. The master bedroom offers two windows for great natural light and a Big master bathroom with dual sinks, shower and spacious walk-in closet with built ins. With a beautiful back yard and low HOA this could be the one you can call HOME. Schedule your private tour today!!!

20. 2019-02-08
    listed $215,000 Active 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    NEW LISTING PRICE!!! Are you looking for a corner lot home built in 2016? Welcome to the Lake Cummings Gated Community. This Like-New well maintained Single Family Residence offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and plenty of space for you and your family. When you open the front door you can see the space on the hallway and unique split floor plan. The kitchen shows amaretto color cabinets, dark appliances, back splash and a spacious island for those busy mornings. The master bedroom offers two windows for great natural light and a Big master bathroom with dual sinks, shower and spacious walk-in closet with built ins. With a beautiful back yard and low HOA this could be the one you can call HOME. Schedule your private tour today!!!

21. 2004-09-24
    soldstatus $420,000
22. 1973-12-01
    soldstatus $205,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,485 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,485 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$3,485
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,333
• − Management: −$2,333
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$4,957
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,190
• After-tax cash flow: $962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Alfred, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,757
• Household income: $61,622
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.91%
• Current HPI: 353.941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+35.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-31 Sold (MLS) $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-29 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-18 Price Changed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-10 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-18 Listed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-01 Sold (MLS) $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-25 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-08 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $420,000 Public Records
• 1973-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $205,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,485 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.