911 Worth St · Covington, KY 41011

$99,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1924 4,215 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pending when submitted 4 Bedroom 1 bath, full basement with walkout, corner lot, near Devou Park

Key facts

• 4,215 sq ft lot
• Parking

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $842 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John G Carlisle Elementary (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #620 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 304 students, 81% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 82% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.13%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,056
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1220 Holman St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,204 (-4%)	1mo	$253,000	$210	57
716 Willard St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,171 (-6%)	0mo	$290,000	$248	56
927 Philadelphia St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (-12%)	6mo	$85,000	$77	54
630 Sunset Ct	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,316 (+5%)	2mo	$550,000	$418	50
509 Craig St	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-2%)	8mo	$260,000	$213	48
1129 Holman St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,403 (+12%)	7mo	$230,000	$164	46
516 Western Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,379 (+10%)	7mo	$375,000	$272	46
1210 Old State Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,361 (+9%)	3mo	$302,250	$222	44
310-312 W 7th St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-10%)	5mo	$358,000	$320	43
417 W 16th St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (-12%)	1mo	$52,500	$48	40
29 Augusta Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (-12%)	8mo	$330,500	$299	39
1549 Woodburn Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,072 (-14%)	3mo	$215,000	$201	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $34,754
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $88,561
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41011

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $931/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $842

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 Parkvale Ct Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	44d	1	0.31mi
1002 Parkvale Ct Unit 1004 1 Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	44d	1	0.31mi
1431 Dixie Hwy Park Hills, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,553	$2.77	2d	10	0.46mi
515 Main St Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,215	$2.37	2d	8	0.67mi
1025 Scott St Unit 2 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	3d	1	0.95mi
1215 Elberta Cir Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$1,050	$1.27	3d	1	0.97mi
22 Swain Ct Covington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$2,295	$2.41	2d	3	1.08mi
1261 Parkway Ave Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	4d	3	1.08mi
50 W Rivercenter Blvd Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1273	$3,640	$2.86	2d	9	1.11mi
508 Greenup St Unit 508-02 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1220	$1,800	$1.48	2d	1	1.15mi
103 E 3rd St Covington, KY	2.0	2.5	1291	$3,250	$2.52	2d	1	1.15mi
5 Devou Woods Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$890	$1.27	2d	1	1.15mi
344 E 13th St Unit 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	23d	1	1.26mi
1222 E Henry Clay Ave Fort Wright, KY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,548	$1.29	23d	1	1.32mi
2307 Center St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1216	$1,950	$1.60	7d	1	1.34mi
2220 Cityscape Dr Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,985	$2.13	2d	9	1.40mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $99,900 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   remarks 97-char remark
3. 2026-06-15
   listed $99,900 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $931 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $931 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$931
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $9,020
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,165
• After-tax cash flow: $7,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,981
• Household income: $69,970
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1488.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.20%
• Current HPI: 237.0869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $99,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $931 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.