1245 Derby Rd #7 · Birmingham, MI 48009

$219,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 982 sqft · Condo public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1960 $383/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $383 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: BIRMINGHAM NORTH CONDO; Directions: South of Big Beaver Road and east of Adams; Cross street: Big Beaver and Adams
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $383; Pets allowed (contact for details)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Carport (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; One level with ground-level entry; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Community pool; Sidewalks; Paved road access

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.5% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#12 in MI, #200 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Birmingham Public Schools (suburban): math 58% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #18 of 540 in MI (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($153k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $219k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $199,804 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-40,672
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-37,114
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48009

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,374/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$383
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,199

Max offer price $199,804

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1109 Derby Rd Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	780	$1,400	$1.79	15d	1	0.06mi
35300 Woodward Ave #507 Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	730	$2,000	$2.74	24d	1	0.52mi
1802 E Maple Rd Birmingham, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$1,565	$2.02	15d	3	0.59mi
343 S Elm St Unit A Birmingham, MI	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,000	$2.73	16d	1	0.64mi
2101 E Maple Rd Birmingham, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	15d	1	0.65mi
2233 E Maple Rd Unit A104 Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	725	$1,300	$1.79	24d	1	0.70mi
2233 E Maple Rd Unit D104 Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	725	$1,275	$1.76	24d	1	0.70mi
2233 E Maple Rd Unit B301 Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	725	$1,395	$1.92	24d	1	0.70mi
1997 Villa Rd Birmingham, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1050	$1,975	$1.88	1d	10	0.71mi
520 S Adams Rd Apt 7 Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	650	$1,425	$2.19	20d	1	0.71mi
520 S Adams Rd Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	650	$1,425	$2.19	5d	2	0.71mi
856 N Old Woodward Ave Birmingham, MI	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1697	$6,425	$3.78	24d	6	0.76mi
411 S Old Woodward Ave Birmingham, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	743	$3,850	$5.18	3d	6	0.76mi
211 E Merrill St Birmingham, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$4,078	$3.85	1d	7	0.77mi
2457 E Maple Rd Birmingham, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,525	$2.01	24d	1	0.78mi
555 S Old Woodward Ave Birmingham, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$4,161	$4.02	1d	4	0.82mi
2567 E Maple Rd Unit 5 Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	670	$1,225	$1.83	24d	1	0.84mi
707 S Worth St Birmingham, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1290	$6,900	$5.35	1d	17	0.84mi
2655 E Maple Rd #19 Birmingham, MI	2.0	1.0	791	$1,350	$1.71	24d	1	0.88mi
650 Ann St Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	700	$1,462	$2.09	24d	1	0.90mi
2859 E Maple Rd #15 Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	685	$1,250	$1.82	5d	1	0.95mi
2859 E Maple Rd #15 Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	685	$1,250	$1.82	24d	1	0.95mi
444 Chester St #413 Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	664	$2,200	$3.31	15d	1	1.01mi
771 Henrietta St Unit 773 Birmingham, MI	1.0	1.0	1054	$1,925	$1.83	24d	1	1.06mi
1935 Axtell Dr #3 Troy, MI	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,600	$1.51	15d	1	1.07mi
1188 Ruffner Ave Birmingham, MI	2.0	1.0	849	$2,300	$2.71	4d	1	1.09mi
1820 Axtell Dr #1 Troy, MI	2.0	1.0	868	$1,300	$1.50	5d	1	1.17mi
1820 Axtell Dr #6 Troy, MI	1.0	1.0	868	$1,100	$1.27	43d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $383 · $4,596/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $219,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $229,000 Active
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $229,000 Active
17. 1996-09-10
    soldstatus $75,000
18. 1988-11-01
    soldstatus $72,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,374 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,373 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$999/yr (+$83/mo · 72.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$1,374
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − HOA: −$4,596
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$4,924
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,182
• After-tax cash flow: $-122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2605850
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $110,445
• Composite: 60.54/100
• National rank: #839
• State rank: #18 of 540 in MI

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #200

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, MI
• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 21,772
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 21,772
• Household income: $153,401
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 476.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -644.58%
• Current HPI: 201.3418
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+214.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $229,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-18 Listed $229,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1988-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,374 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.