45465 25th St Spc 9 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$138,788

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2004 Average condition 4,356 sqft lot Est $137k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 45465 25th St #9, Located in a cul-de-sac on a oversized lot, 3 bedrooms and 2 baths home, built in 2004. Two awning and a built in Shed, enclosed front and backyard. This community offers a number of amenities including swimming pool, basketball courts, gym, recreational room, RV/Boat storage, and 24-hour security, plenty of visitors parking. Feel free to Visit the park's website at https://www. lancasterestatesmhp.com

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Built in shed
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• OVERSIZED LOT
• BUILT IN SHED
• ENCLOSED FRONT AND BACKYARD
• SWIMMING POOL
• BASKETBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Space number Spc 9; Manufacturer: Skyline Homes; Model: Palm Springs 2316-Ct; Length: 45 ft; Width: 25 ft; Date of manufacture: 2004; Serial number: 23-71-0869-S-BA; Trade name: Skyline; Label/Insignia numbers: ULI 556814, ULI 556815; APN: 8950-138-009
• HOA & community: Mobile home park amenities: barbeque, clubhouse/rec room, pool, spa/hot tub, recreation area, RV park; Park manager: Jackie (661-948-0940); Space rent: $820; Park deposit: $820; Deposit: $3,000

Exterior

• Security: Security complex
• Utilities: Cable TV available; Natural gas
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (2004); Located in Lancaster Estates mobile home park; All ages park
• Construction: Composition shingle roof; Siding exterior; Skirted
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; TV antenna; Awning; Shed; Awning

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Gas Range; Garbage disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Gas Range; Disposal

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Eastside Union Elementary (suburban): math 15% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,226 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary (428 students, 91% FRL); Gifford C. Cole Middle (703 students, 92% FRL); Eastside High (2,650 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 81% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1178 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $960 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,624 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.30%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,280
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45465 E 25th St #262	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+11%)	3mo	$175,000	$149	79
45465 25th St #93	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,178 (+12%)	6mo	$95,000	$81	75
45465 25th E #268	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+12%)	4mo	$197,000	$166	73
45465 E 25th Street East St #155	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	22mo	$145,000	$126	66
45111 25th E #52	0.46mi	3/2.0	960 (-9%)	6mo	$159,999	$167	58
45415 E 28th St E #45	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	922 (-13%)	1mo	$90,000	$98	51
45111 25th St E #88	0.46mi	3/2.0	960 (-9%)	14mo	$125,000	$130	51
45415 E 28th St #16	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	16mo	$95,000	$79	42
45111 E 25th St St E #3	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+9%)	21mo	$169,000	$147	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $43,238
• Equity at exit: $20,694

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $103,971
• Equity at exit: $12,000

Cash invested: $38,861 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1178
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,518 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$728
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $724/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $1,143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,071

Max offer price $138,788

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,222	-5% $1,182	+0% $1,143	+5% $1,104	+10% $1,065
Rent	-10% $944	-5% $1,044	+0% $1,143	+5% $1,243	+10% $1,342
Rate	-1.0pp $1,213	-0.5pp $1,178	base $1,143	+0.5pp $1,107	+1.0pp $1,071

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,697
• Closing costs: $4,164
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45118 Parkview Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,500	$2.55	25d	1	0.63mi
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$3,100	$2.38	0d	1	0.93mi
44709 26th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,300	$1.75	19d	1	0.97mi
1734 Lightcap St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,700	$1.84	0d	1	1.00mi
1628 Cactus Dr Apt B Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,999	$2.00	0d	1	1.34mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,875	$1.88	3d	1	1.34mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1084	$1,950	$1.80	23d	1	1.34mi
1827 East Avenue J Unit 2 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,850	$1.76	18d	1	1.39mi
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,050	$1.93	0d	1	1.41mi
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,150	$2.02	25d	1	1.41mi
2500 Topaz Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1274	$2,800	$2.20	25d	1	1.44mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,600	$1.82	16d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,788 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,788 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,788 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,788 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,788 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,788 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,788 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,788 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,788 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $138,788 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $724 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,055 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$330/yr (+$28/mo · 45.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,774
• − Property taxes: −$724
• − Insurance: −$694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,417
• − Management: −$2,417
• − Depreciation: −$4,037
• Taxable income: $12,150
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,916
• After-tax cash flow: $10,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed to improve its appearance and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some landscaping needs attention
• Minor Paint touch-ups — Paint appears faded in some areas

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Some landscaping needs attention	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint touch-ups · Paint appears faded in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0611910
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,840
• Composite: 21.43/100
• National rank: #13636
• State rank: #1226 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $145,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $724 · +17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.