10078 Prince Dr · Castle Point, MO 63136

$69,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1970 6,499 sqft lot $69/sqft · 19% above area Est $59k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Key facts

• Full renovation
• Functional layout
• Local amenities

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• FULL RENOVATION
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual property tax reported

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (220 volts)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 13.0% in Castle Point — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lewis And Clark Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 145 students, 98% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.73%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,696
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: 19.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9984 Duke Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	1mo	$54,000	$56	81
2442 Gardner Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,054 (+4%)	2mo	$59,900	$57	79
10127 Monarch Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,015 (+0%)	1mo	$155,000	$153	77
9850 Monarch Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,014 (+0%)	2mo	$99,900	$99	76
9828 Omega Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	988 (-2%)	0mo	$100,000	$101	70
10417 Prince Dr	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,040 (+3%)	2mo	$120,000	$115	69
10117 Royal Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0	864 (-14%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	68
10231 Monarch Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,073 (+6%)	1mo	$189,999	$177	62
10128 Ashbrook Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0	912 (-10%)	0mo	$130,000	$143	54
10139 Edgefield Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+13%)	0mo	$119,900	$105	52
2225 Kerwin Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,135 (+12%)	2mo	$135,900	$120	48
10501 Baron Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	888 (-12%)	2mo	$99,000	$111	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $49,067
• Equity at exit: $34,586

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.45×
• Total profit: $126,193
• Equity at exit: $55,896

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $948/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $601

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	43d	1	0.19mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	43d	1	0.19mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	23d	1	0.30mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	0.32mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	23d	1	0.34mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	43d	1	0.35mi
9908 Norbridge Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.40mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	23d	1	0.42mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.47mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	43d	1	0.49mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	7d	1	0.54mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	3d	1	0.56mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	23d	1	0.57mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	1d	1	0.57mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	23d	1	0.60mi
10441 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1380	$1,380	$1.00	43d	1	0.61mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	10d	1	0.62mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	21d	1	0.63mi
10501 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,090	$0.96	43d	1	0.68mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	14d	1	0.75mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	7d	1	0.76mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	14d	1	0.78mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	17d	1	0.79mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	14d	1	0.79mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	21d	1	0.83mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	16d	1	0.86mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	43d	1	0.89mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.90mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.90mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	21d	1	0.93mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	43d	1	0.99mi
10367 Coburg Lands Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,270	$1.39	43d	1	1.02mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	1.03mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	1.03mi
1238 Hoyt Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,400	$1.19	21d	1	1.03mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	23d	1	1.05mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	1.08mi
1009 Bliss Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	43d	1	1.11mi
1208 Rapid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	4d	1	1.14mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	2d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $69,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $79,900 Active 599-char remark
16. 2003-10-16
    soldstatus $65,000
17. 2003-10-16
    soldstatus
18. 1991-02-11
    soldstatus
19. 1991-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$948
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,831
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,399
• After-tax cash flow: $5,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Castle Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #14373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Point, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+7.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $69,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1991-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $948 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.