470 Mueller Ave · Ferguson, MO 63135

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1949 6,499 sqft lot $93/sqft · 17% above area Est $56k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with attached 1-car garage. This inviting residence features a bright, sun-filled living area, functional kitchen with dedicated dining space, and comfortable bedrooms with ample storage. Thoughtful updates enhance modern comfort while preserving classic charm. The attached garage provides convenient access and additional storage, while the compact yard ensures low-maintenance upkeep. Ideally located in a friendly neighborhood near everyday amenities, this well-maintained property presents an investment opportunity with steady cash flow potential.

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1949

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.65%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,651
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 16.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
462 S Dade Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0	720 (+3%)	5mo	$60,750	$84	84
302 Plaza Ave	0.33mi	2/1.0	704 (+1%)	11mo	$85,000	$121	74
811 Marvin Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0	720 (+3%)	7mo	$99,999	$139	71
346 Mueller Ave	0.22mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (+1%)	19mo	$39,900	$57	68
313 S Dade Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0	768 (+10%)	5mo	$67,500	$88	64
808 Arline Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	720 (+3%)	0mo	$125,000	$174	61
901 Arline Ave	0.48mi	1/1.0 (-1)	744 (+7%)	8mo	$50,000	$67	55
405 Estelle Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	775 (+11%)	1mo	$79,900	$103	53
350 S Harvey Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	608 (-13%)	14mo	$40,000	$66	50
129 Wiegel Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	672 (-3%)	20mo	$83,000	$124	43
137 Wiegel Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0	768 (+10%)	11mo	$34,900	$45	40
230 Georgia Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	800 (+15%)	15mo	$85,000	$106	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $18,633
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $71,268
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $708/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $540

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5518 B4 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$835	$1.11	43d	1	0.05mi
334 Mueller Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	713	$825	$1.16	23d	1	0.24mi
806 Marvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	726	$1,100	$1.52	43d	1	0.41mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	23d	1	0.76mi
26 Arbor Village Ct Ferguson, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	23d	1	0.95mi
9316 Koenig Cir Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,150	$1.60	4d	5	1.16mi
7733 Brand Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	656	$1,090	$1.66	23d	1	1.22mi
6180 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	43d	1	1.36mi
6315 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	739	$1,175	$1.59	16d	1	1.46mi
6336 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,175	$1.63	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $65,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $69,000 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    Charming and cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with attached 1-car garage. This inviting residence features a bright, sun-filled living area, functional kitchen with dedicated dining space, and comfortable bedrooms with ample storage. Thoughtful updates enhance modern comfort while preserving classic charm. The attached garage provides convenient access and additional storage, while the compact yard ensures low-maintenance upkeep. Ideally located in a friendly neighborhood near everyday amenities, this well-maintained property presents an investment opportunity with steady cash flow potential.

16. 2026-02-19
    listed $70,000 Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    Charming and cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with attached 1-car garage. This inviting residence features a bright, sun-filled living area, functional kitchen with dedicated dining space, and comfortable bedrooms with ample storage. Thoughtful updates enhance modern comfort while preserving classic charm. The attached garage provides convenient access and additional storage, while the compact yard ensures low-maintenance upkeep. Ideally located in a friendly neighborhood near everyday amenities, this well-maintained property presents an investment opportunity with steady cash flow potential.

17. 2021-03-18
    soldstatus $135,413
18. 2020-12-17
    soldstatus $33,000
19. 2020-08-05
    soldstatus $11,000
20. 2020-06-24
    soldstatus Closed 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Property is being sold as-is. Seller to pay for no inspections, utilities, and/or repairs.

21. 2020-06-08
    status Pending 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Property is being sold as-is. Seller to pay for no inspections, utilities, and/or repairs.

22. 2020-05-07
    listed $15,000 Active 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Property is being sold as-is. Seller to pay for no inspections, utilities, and/or repairs.

23. 2013-04-22
    soldstatus $966,000
24. 2002-08-27
    soldstatus
25. 1999-12-21
    soldstatus
26. 1999-05-06
    soldstatus $16,000
27. 1999-05-04
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$708
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$973
• − Management: −$973
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$877
• After-tax cash flow: $3,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+762.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $69,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $135,413 Public Records
• 2020-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-24 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-07 Listed $15,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $966,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $708 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.