197 Kingery Ln · Piney, AR 71968

$384,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 2003 4.23 ac lot $136/sqft · 33% below area Est $575k · 33% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living on wooded 4.23 acres MOL. 20 minutes from a launching ramp on Lake Ouachita & 10 Minutes from Lake Hamilton. Four bedrooms and two baths on main level. One bedroom, bath and bonus room upstairs. Open kitchen dining area with island in kitchen, pot hangar above island. New dishwasher. Newer architectural shingle roof, two heat and air units. Patio & a very private covered deck. Paved driveway, green house, raised gardens, storage building and play house. Area of similar homes on acreage.

Key facts

• Wooded 4.23 acres
• Paved driveway
• New dishwasher

Tags

• WOODED 4.23 ACRES
• OPEN KITCHEN DINING AREA
• NEW DISHWASHER
• PRIVATE COVERED DECK
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• GREEN HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (55.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (63.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (63.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 1.9% in Piney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#218 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Hamilton School District (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 238 in AR (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$66k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,559 (63.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.37% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.57%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 22.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $575,306
• List price: $384,900
• Delta: -33.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $131,856
• Equity at exit: $346,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $448,961
• Equity at exit: $747,776

Cash invested: $107,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71968

• Home prices YoY: 13.7%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 22.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,416 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,018
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,893/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-1,218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,958

Max offer price $169,685

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,225
• Closing costs: $11,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $384,900 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $384,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $384,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $384,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $384,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $384,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $384,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $384,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $384,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $384,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $384,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $384,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $384,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $384,900 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $384,900 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $384,900 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $384,900 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    price $384,900 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Country living on wooded 4.23 acres MOL. 20 minutes from a launching ramp on Lake Ouachita & 10 Minutes from Lake Hamilton. Four bedrooms and two baths on main level. One bedroom, bath and bonus room upstairs. Open kitchen dining area with island in kitchen, pot hangar above island. New dishwasher. Newer architectural shingle roof, two heat and air units. Patio & a very private covered deck. Paved driveway, green house, raised gardens, storage building and play house. Area of similar homes on acreage.

19. 2026-04-28
    price $384,900 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Country living on wooded 4.23 acres MOL. 20 minutes from a launching ramp on Lake Ouachita & 10 Minutes from Lake Hamilton. Four bedrooms and two baths on main level. One bedroom, bath and bonus room upstairs. Open kitchen dining area with island in kitchen, pot hangar above island. New dishwasher. Newer architectural shingle roof, two heat and air units. Patio & a very private covered deck. Paved driveway, green house, raised gardens, storage building and play house. Area of similar homes on acreage.

20. 2026-03-06
    listed $399,000 Active 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Country living on wooded 4.23 acres MOL. 20 minutes from a launching ramp on Lake Ouachita & 10 Minutes from Lake Hamilton. Four bedrooms and two baths on main level. One bedroom, bath and bonus room upstairs. Open kitchen dining area with island in kitchen, pot hangar above island. New dishwasher. Newer architectural shingle roof, two heat and air units. Patio & a very private covered deck. Paved driveway, green house, raised gardens, storage building and play house. Area of similar homes on acreage.

21. 2026-03-02
    listed $399,000 New Listing 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Country living on wooded 4.23 acres MOL. 20 minutes from a launching ramp on Lake Ouachita & 10 Minutes from Lake Hamilton. Four bedrooms and two baths on main level. One bedroom, bath and bonus room upstairs. Open kitchen dining area with island in kitchen, pot hangar above island. New dishwasher. Newer architectural shingle roof, two heat and air units. Patio & a very private covered deck. Paved driveway, green house, raised gardens, storage building and play house. Area of similar homes on acreage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,893 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,463 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$570/yr (+$48/mo · 30.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,560
• − Property taxes: −$1,893
• − Insurance: −$1,924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,359
• − Management: −$1,359
• − Depreciation: −$11,197
• Taxable loss: −$22,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,353
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Hamilton School District
• NCES district ID: 0508610
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 35.79/100
• National rank: #4834
• State rank: #54 of 238 in AR

Livability — Piney

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #16742

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,578

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.79%
• Current HPI: 372.1719
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $384,900 CARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $384,900 HSBOR
• 2026-03-06 Listed $399,000 HSBOR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $399,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,893 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.