421 E Wilbarger St · Bowie, TX 76230

$119,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 304 Days on market

Built 1960 10,759 sqft lot $95/sqft · 23% below area Est $154k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Ranch-Style Fixer Upper in Established Neighborhood Less than 1 mile from Highway 287 for the perfect commute! Opportunity awaits with this ranch-style home nestled in a well-established neighborhood filled with mature trees and timeless character. Just under a mile from Highway 287, the location offers convenient access to schools, shopping, dining, and commuting routes. This property is ideal for buyers looking to put their personal touch on a home or for investors seeking their next project. With its classic single-story layout, spacious lot, and quiet surroundings, it provides the perfect foundation to create your dream home. Don’t miss the chance to own a home with great potential in a desirable location.

Key facts

• Single-story layout
• Convenient access
• Spacious lot

Tags

• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• MATURE TREES
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• SINGLE-STORY LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LOT
• QUIET SURROUNDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.1% in Bowie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#796 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Bowie ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #469 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 23 units permitted in Montague County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montague County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.92%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,949
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -22.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 E Wilbarger	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,190 (-5%)	11mo	$125,000	$105	75
401 Miller St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-8%)	6mo	$200,000	$174	58
204 Taylor St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-9%)	8mo	$49,000	$43	56
719 Small St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,325 (+6%)	7mo	$115,000	$87	55
206 Rock St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-6%)	13mo	$175,000	$149	55
207 N Mill St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,095 (-12%)	8mo	$144,900	$132	43
209 Washington St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+13%)	23mo	$99,900	$71	41
602 Ray St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	23mo	$224,000	$160	30
410 Elba St	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,420 (+14%)	10mo	$199,500	$140	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,251
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $13,555
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76230

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,807/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,043

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
418 Elba St Bowie, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	1d	1	0.65mi
903 N Lamb St Bowie, TX	3.0	1.0	1269	$1,450	$1.14	1d	1	0.82mi
1003 Rock St Unit 7 Bowie, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	10d	1	0.93mi
911 U.S. 81 Unit D Bowie, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	1d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 304 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 303 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 301 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $119,000 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,000 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $137,000 Active 294 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $137,000 Active 293 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,000 Active 292 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $137,000 Active 289 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,000 Active 288 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,000 Active 287 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,000 Active 286 DOM
15. 2025-08-18
    listed $137,000 Active 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    Charming Ranch-Style Fixer Upper in Established Neighborhood Less than 1 mile from Highway 287 for the perfect commute! Opportunity awaits with this ranch-style home nestled in a well-established neighborhood filled with mature trees and timeless character. Just under a mile from Highway 287, the location offers convenient access to schools, shopping, dining, and commuting routes. This property is ideal for buyers looking to put their personal touch on a home or for investors seeking their next project. With its classic single-story layout, spacious lot, and quiet surroundings, it provides the perfect foundation to create your dream home. Don’t miss the chance to own a home with great potential in a desirable location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,807 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$370/yr (+$31/mo · 20.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,807
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $794
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$191
• After-tax cash flow: $2,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bowie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810990
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,720
• Composite: 31.99/100
• National rank: #5836
• State rank: #469 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bowie

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #796
• US rank: #14499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bowie, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,885

Population outlook (Montague County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,216 people
• By 2030: 17,603 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 16,451 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 15,424 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 13,365 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 10,998 · -39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montague

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.7) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -58.5pp · 2024: -77.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.7 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+70.1 2008: R+58.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.69%
• Current HPI: 204.0919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-18 Listed $137,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,807 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.